242
FXUS63 KLBF 120902
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
402 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A short lived heat wave is predicted today with high
  temperatures in the 90s to around 100. A cold front will move
  through tonight cooling highs into the 80s to lower 90s
  Thursday.

- Severe weather is possible Friday afternoon and Friday night.
  The details of the type of severe weather remains uncertain.
  Nonetheless, scattered severe storms are possible which could
  be accompanied by locally heavy rainfall and flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A weak UA disturbance is moving through SD this morning and radar
is beginning to show some returns across nrn Nebraska. The
model consensus continues to suggest an isolated thunderstorm
chance across ncntl Nebraska until about 15z this morning.

Very favorable conditions for hot temperatures today with northwest
winds developing and h700mb temperatures around 14C. H850-300mb RH
will fall toward 20 percent by late afternoon. The clear skies,
northwest winds and deep vertical mixing above h700mb warrants the
NBM 75th percentile for high temperatures in the 90s to around 100.

A cold front moving through the nrn Rockies this morning will arrive
in wrn/ncntl Nebraska tonight and back into the region overnight.
The front will undercut the very warm air aloft Thursday and the
forecast tonight and Thursday is for dry weather. The focus for
thunderstorm development will be south and west of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The models continue to track a subtropical disturbance off the
coast of Baja Mexico through the srn Rockies and toward Nebraska
Thursday and Friday. A stationary front across KS Thursday will
lift north toward or into wrn/srn Nebraska Friday. The front
will be the focus for storm development but the frontal location
remains uncertain as it could lie near the KS border. The
models are in good agreement showing warm air advection
developing across wrn KS/ern Colo Friday afternoon. It is aimed
at wrn Nebraska.

Wherever the focus lies, the NAM and GFS suggest PWAT above 1.50
inches and given the MLCAPE in the NAM of 4000+ J/KG, plus bulk
shear of 40-50kts, HP storms should develop. The storm mode is
speculative at this point plus the 06z NAM shows the warm front
aligned more east and west near the KS border. Still, BUFkit
suggests either supercells or a multicell system will develop.  The
very low LCLs in the NAM soundings along the front, perhaps as low
as 500m, are unsettling.

This system will be east of wrn/ncntl Nebraska Saturday with Pacific
high pressure building into the region. An upper low will be
dropping into the nrn Rockies and this will flush hot desert air
into Nebraska aloft. The models show temperatures at h700mb warming
to 15-18C Saturday night through Monday. Cool high sfc high pressure
should present a fairly stable environment but there is considerable
uncertainty in the temperature forecast Sunday and Monday. The NBM
indicates a 9-10 degree spread in temperatures which increases to
over 15 Tuesday. The reason for this is the location of a cold
front which could lift north.

Overall, the focus for storm development Saturday through
Tuesday appears to be north, south or east of wrn/ncntl
Nebraska and the extended forecast is generally uneventful.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Low-level wind shear will be of concern early this morning as a
southwesterly low-level jet be present just off the surface.
Otherwise, a weak wind shift will cross the area today. South
winds will shift to the northwest as it crosses the area. A few
thunderstorms may develop along the wind shift line, but that
appears to occur across eastern Nebraska later this afternoon.
VFR conditions will prevail today through tonight across all of
the area.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Taylor