Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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540 FXUS63 KLBF 171727 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1227 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * A dry forecast is expected through Saturday afternoon with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, slightly cooler on Saturday in the 70s. * A slight risk of severe weather is possible on Sunday afternoon and evening with large hail, severe winds, and heavy rainfall the primary threats. * Active weather continues through mid-week, although, confidence remains low on severe potential. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 A quiet forecast is in store for north central Nebraska through the majority of the short term. Weak upper level ridging and surface high pressure will keep conditions quiet while warm air advection into the region will push temperatures into the warmer end of guidance today. At this time, 850 mb temperatures in the 20 to 26 degree C range will surge into western and southwest Nebraska during the day today. The latest trends suggest maximum temperature probabilities of hitting the upper 80s to be in the 50th percentile. While not exceptionally high, this combined with the continued warming trend and surge of WAA will increase confidence of high temperatures to easily rise into the mid to upper 80s with some isolated locations across extreme southwest Nebraska hitting 90 degrees. A weak trough will track across the High Plains on Friday night bringing some cooler temperatures to the region for Saturday. High temperatures will drop down into the 70s, however, dry conditions will persist through Saturday afternoon. Increasing clouds are anticipated by late afternoon in advance of the next weather system, but any precipitation will hold off until later on Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Active weather will then arrive on Saturday night bringing significant rain chances as well as potential severe storms to the region through Sunday. A shortwave will move into the region on Saturday night bringing with it the potential for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Minimal instability will keep any showers and thunderstorms from becoming severe, however, small hail and some brief stronger winds will be possible through sunrise Sunday morning. A secondary stronger upper level trough is then expected on Sunday afternoon and evening resulting in another round of thunderstorms, some potentially severe as a better region of instability arrives by Sunday afternoon. There is some concern that lingering showers from Saturday night may limit the severe potential for later in the day by creating a more stable environment. However, the latest model runs continue to suggest two separate rounds of convection with current SPC guidance supporting the potential for severe storm development by Sunday evening. With this system still three days out, details are still being fine-tuned and changes will likely occur over the next couple of days. Those with outside plans on Sunday should stay weather aware and be prepared to make adjustments based on the latest forecasts. A series of disturbances will continue to impact Nebraska through the end of the extended period. At this time, severe weather risk remains uncertain, although, it appears that heavy rain may be the highest risk through mid-week. Stay tuned to later forecasts as threats become clearer due to these mid-week systems in the coming days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue through tomorrow afternoon across western and north central Nebraska. Forecast soundings suggest strong mixing will be possible this afternoon and again tomorrow morning, which will lead to periods of gusty winds. Skies will remain relatively clear, though passing high clouds will be possible. Winds will shift overnight from westerly to northerly following the passage of a cold front across the region. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...Richie