Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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633 FXUS63 KLMK 080542 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 142 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers and a few thunderstorms this weekend. Locally heavy downpours possible late Saturday night into early Sunday morning across western and southern Kentucky. && .UPDATE... Issued at 954 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Sun has just set over central Kentucky and southern Indiana, allowing gusty southwesterly winds to relax and temperatures to cool. Clear skies and light winds will lead to efficient cooling. Low temperatures in the morning are expected to be in the upper 50s and low 60s. In the early morning, dissipating convection currently over the central Plains will move over the Ohio Valley bringing broken to overcast clouds and scattered light showers by mid- morning. Current forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Tonight, the surface high will be focused just south of us moving toward eastern Tennessee. As a result, there will be mostly clear skies and dry conditions. After a breezy afternoon, the winds will become more light and variable overnight as the high pressure shifts eastward. Temperatures will lower into the mid to upper 50s. Close to sunrise, convective cloud debris from the decaying MCS over Missouri will filter over our area. By sunrise tomorrow, expect increasing mid- and high-level cloud cover. For tomorrow, low rain chances will spread eastward as the remnants of the overnight MCS continue to dissipate. NBM is very bullish on precip chances tomorrow, but given high res model soundings showing very dry air in the lowest 3km, have decided to back off on PoPs slightly. Decided to lower PoPs to 20-30% with the highest chances north of I-64. We can expect some scattered showers tomorrow afternoon over southern IN, and isolated showers for the rest of KY. With increasing cloud cover throughout the day, little to no instability is expected, so thunderstorm chances remain low. Temperatures for tomorrow will range from mid to upper 70s for southern IN, and upper 70s to low 80s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Saturday Night through Monday Night... Saturday night will feature a cold front slipping in from the northwest and then slowing down in southern KY by dawn Sunday. Nocturnal low-level jet will be in play, but not anywhere as strong as what we saw Friday night. PWATs will be in the 1.75-1.9 inch range along that front so primo juice will be available for convection. Overall convective evolution here is still a bit muddled as the HRRR has some sort of MCS rolling through the central part of our CWA while the 3KNAM, Euro and GFS have an MCS rolling through mainly southwest and far western KY. For now, will keep higher end chance PoPs going for the overnight until we get a bit more forecast convergence within the next few model cycles. Overall severe threat looks pretty low here, but if we get a forward propagating MCS, then gusty winds and torrential rainfall would be the main threats. PoPs should continue into Sunday morning with drier conditions likely in the wake for the afternoon/evening. Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 60s. Highs Sunday will likely be in the upper 70s to around 80. Sunday night lows will be cooler behind the front with lows in the upper 50s. Dry and less humid conditions are expected for Monday and Monday night with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 and overnight lows in the low-mid 50s. Tuesday through Friday... Moving into next week, the pattern will start off with a trough axis along the east coast with some upper ridging over the Ohio Valley. This trough axis will move east and the flow over the Ohio Valley will remain in a west-northwest type pattern. Earlier forecasts showed a mid-level perturbation working through around midweek. However, latest ensembles and deterministic runs have shifted this feature more to the south and west here. Additionally the GFS and its ensembles have reversed course here and are now much more dry through the period, which matches the Euro. Perhaps the next chance of precipitation may arrive in the Thu/Fri time frame as a stronger wave in the northern stream pushes through the Great Lakes which may bring at least some iso-sct showers/storms to the region. Temps will remain below normal for Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to near 80. Lower 80s look likely for Wednesday. An uptick in temps looks likely for Thursday as highs will warm into the middle 80s. Latest blend is suggesting upper 80s and lower 90s by Friday. That seems a bit aggressive given the relative moist soil conditions and lush vegetation across the region. More than likely, highs will top out in the mid-upper 80s by late week and into next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 141 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 High clouds from a convective system over the central Plains will begin to move across the region over the next few hours, with winds remaining light and generally out of the SW through sunrise. Later this morning, the remnants of the convective system are expected to move across the region as a weakening band of light rain showers. Little to no impacts are expected from these showers, and due to coverage and timing uncertainty, we`ll only go with VCSH mention for now. A light SW breeze should pick up after sunrise this morning, with wind speeds of 5-10 kt expected through the daytime hours today. Cloud bases will gradually build downward through the day, though there is high confidence in VFR conditions continuing through at least the late evening hours tonight. Toward the end of the current forecast period, a cold front dropping in from the north will bring an increase of moisture below 10 kft. At this time, we`ll keep VFR CIGs going through the forecast, although the probability of MVFR or lower CIGs will increase between 06-12Z Sunday. Additionally, a second round of rain (and possibly a few storms) may impact sites early Sunday morning; however, confidence is too low to mention in the current forecast. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...SRM SHORT TERM...CJP LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...CSG