Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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628 FXUS64 KMEG 090421 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1121 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Convection across southern Missouri is sagging into NE AR and has been on a weakening trend as it heads eastward. The airmass is not quite as supportive of severe weather further toward the east. Still could see a strong to severe storms across NE AR over the next couple of hours with more of wind threat than a hail threat. Another concern is the heavy rain threat with PWs around 2 inches across NE AR and the MO Bootheel and convection that has tended to train this evening. There is fairly robust 850 moisture transport into the region helping to aid the heavy rain potential. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread over the northern half of the Mid-South overnight with a gradual weakening trend as storms spread east and south. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will move into the northern half of the Mid-South tonight as a cold front approaches the region from the north. A few thunderstorms could be strong or possibly severe late this evening mainly north of I-40. Large hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy rainfall are possible. As the cold front moves through the region on Sunday, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front from Sunday morning through Monday morning. Cooler and drier air will build into the area by Monday night. Temperatures will warm back to the upper 80s to lower 90s by Thursday as an upper-level ridge builds across the region. Along with the warmer weather, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Skies are partly cloudy across much of the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 70s to around 90 degrees. An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving across portions of west Tennessee. A cold front will move south out of northern Missouri tonight and will be just north of the Mid-South by Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of this front tonight with some of this activity moving across northern sections of the Mid-South, mainly north of I-40. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong or possibly severe tonight. Damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall would be the main threats. Temperatures will be seasonably warm tonight with lows Sunday morning in the upper 60s to mid 70s. As the cold front moves south through the Mid-South on Sunday, more scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of it. Temperatures will turn cooler behind the front with highs from the upper 70s to lower 90s. As the front moves into north Mississippi Sunday night, scattered thunderstorms will be confined to the southern half of the region. Temperatures will remain cooler behind the front with lows Monday morning in the upper 50s to upper 60s. As the cold front reaches central Mississippi Monday morning, thunderstorms could be found across extreme southern sections of the Mid-South. Cooler and drier air will move into the region on Monday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dry weather with below normal temperatures is expected for Monday night through Wednesday morning. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday. An upper level ridge will start to build into the Mid-South starting Thursday and continuing into Friday. This will bring warmer air into the region with above normal temperatures expected for both days. Along with the warmer weather, scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible both days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Expect TSRAs to impact JBR and MKL over the next few hours. Less certain about MEM so kept a VCTS there. This round of convection will push east Sunday morning by 14z with lingering low clouds likely at JBR/MKL. As the front sags south additional development is possible on Sunday. The redevelopment should be south of JBR/MKL and most likely at TUP. Light south winds will shift north at 10 kts after the front moves through with ocnl gusts. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...SJM