Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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411 FXUS62 KMHX 060702 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 302 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains off the Southeast coast through today. A strong cold front will approach from the west Thursday and move through Friday and Friday evening, with drier conditions this weekend. Another front will move through Sunday night into early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 800 PM Wednesday...No major changes with this update. Previous Discussion...As of 1530 Wednesday...Upper ridging over the SECONUS will gradually flatten and break down as an upper level trough in the Upper Midwest and an upper low near the Gulf Coast States approach from the west. Two mid level shortwaves also approach the Carolinas from the west today with the first flattening and eventually dissipating before it gets to the Appalachians while the second and stronger trough begins to approach the Appalachians near sunset. At the SFC, ridging remains offshore keeping deep layer S-SW`rly flow across ENC today with winds gusting to around 20-25 mph into this evening. While we will continue to remain warm and muggy, with upper ridging still overhead subsidence aloft will likely inhibit widespread shower and thunderstorm development. But, a few isolated to widely scattered showers and storms could develop and as such kept SChc to low end Chc PoP`s in the forecast. Ongoing convection over the coastal plain is expected to be longer lasting than the more short lived cells popping up along the seabreeze. In addition to this, there is the potential for widespread high and mid level cloud cover to stick around for much of the day today limiting insolation and thus instability. Hi-Res CAM guidance generally suggests 500-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE across ENC the rest of the afternoon. With minimal shear expected (15-25 kts) across the area as well, the severe threat while non-zero is once again very low. Temps will be toasty with highs in the upper 80s across the coastal plain and mid-80s along the OBX. Tonight, a brief lull in precipitation will be possible especially late overnight and into early Thurs morning as the upper ridge finally flattens completely and previously mentioned upper trough with associated mid level shortwave enter into the Wern Carolinas overnight. Either way, have SChc at best PoPs across far inland zones and offshore this evening as an isolated to widely scattered shower/tstm or two will remain possible. A rinse and repeat for temps tonight as the area remains muggy and warm with lows in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 800 PM Wednesday...No major changes with this update. Previous Discussion...As of 1530 Wednesday...Active day ahead as upper trough and prefrontal trough ahead of a strong cold front approach the area. Sct showers and iso tstm potential in the morning near the coast along the developing seabreeze, with chances increasing through the day with better forcing and moisture ahead of the front. Similar to the last few days, will be moist and unstable though weak shear will continue to limit the overall severe threat. However, an isolated strong storm with gusty winds and small hail will be possible. PWATs will approach 2 inches for most of the area, so moderate to locally heavy rain also possible. Largest change to this time period was to slightly delay the progression of the prefrontal trough, which in turn will delay the onset of precip activity in the form of the broken line of showers/storms associated with the prefrontal trough. An increase in heat and humidity is also likely as highs climb into the upper 80s to low 90s, and it will feel like 95-100 degrees for most of the area when factoring in the humidity. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 AM Thu...The cold front will move through Friday, finally pushing offshore Friday evening. Mostly dry with a more comfortable airmass expected this weekend. Another front will likely push through Sunday night and early Monday, bringing threat for sct showers and storms. Friday through Sunday...The front will move through Friday, finally pushing offshore Friday evening. Isolated showers and storms may linger along the coast through the day, with seabreeze likely pinned in the afternoon and weak boundary in the vicinity. Upper troughing becomes more zonal along the east coast through the weekend with weak high pressure building in, keeping area mostly dry. A more comfortable airmass expected over the weekend with dewpoints falling into the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s Sat and 80s to low 90s Sun. Sunday night through Wednesday...Still some uncertainty heading into next week, but starting to come into better focus with much better agreement in the global guidance. A front will move through Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing chances for sct showers and storms. Upper troughing will continue over the eastern US, with weak high pressure building in and potential for weak coastal troughing along the SE coast Mon through Wed. Will continue with temps and pops near climo through mid week. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 150 AM Thu...VFR conditions in place over area terminals this morning with breezy and moist southerly winds as cold front approaches from the west. Only appreciable risk of sub-VFR cigs will be along the southern coast pre-dawn with a risk of periodic MVFR strato-cu, although heights will be no lower than 2 kft. Main concern for aviation interests will be convection, with two rounds likely. First will be focused closer to the Crystal Coast with iso to widely sct sea breeze convection, posing a risk mainly for OAJ and EWN after 17-18z. Second threat will be clusters of cells originally developing along the inland thermal trough, encroaching on the coastal plain from the west late this afternoon into the evening hours. Iso thunderstorm risk will carry into the late evening hours with likely low-level boundary interactions in a sufficiently unstable airmass. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, especially for any activity north of a line from HSE-EWN-GWW. Breezy south to southwesterly winds expected this afternoon with gusts to 15-20 kt, with a few infrequent gusts to 25 kt possible across the inner coastal plain. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 3 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday with weak high pressure building in. Scattered showers and storms may impact the sites Sunday night into Monday, which may bring brief periods of sub-VFR. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 1530 Wednesday...Our stretch of benign boating conditions comes to an end this evening as high pressure remains centered offshore while a cold front begins to approach from the west tightening the pressure gradient and increasing the winds across our waters. Ongoing 5-10 kt SW`rly winds with gusts up around 10-15 kts will increase to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts across much of our waters overnight. These elevated winds then persist into the end of the period. SCAs are in place for all area waters save for Pamlico, Pungo, Neuse, and Bay Rivers. Relatively calm seas of 1-2 ft gradually increase to 2-4 ft tonight as the winds increase with yet another chance at some isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity through the period. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 3 AM Thu...The cold front will move through Friday and Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW 10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW-WNW winds Fri night and Sat 5-15 kt. Moderate to breezy SW flow returns Sunday ahead of another cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt by Sunday evening, with the front moving through Sunday night into early Monday morning. Seas will subside to 2-4 ft Fri afternoon and cont through the weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131- 230. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CEB/RJ SHORT TERM...CEB/RJ LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...MS/CQD MARINE...CEB/CQD