552
FXUS62 KMHX 111826
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
226 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A mostly dry cold front will move through Eastern NC overnight.
High pressure then builds in from the west tomorrow through
Monday night. Then, a low pressure system will bring unsettled
weather across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure
builds in on Thursday before another low pressure system impacts
us late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Pleasant but brisk conditions will continue
this afternoon with cool northerly flow and partly to mostly
cloudy skies. Expect some more clearing across the coastal plain
this afternoon as the low levels begin to dry out, and this
should allow for temps to rise from their current readings in
the 60s to the low 70s. Closer to the coast patches of clouds
will continue to stream down from the north and keep highs close
to current readings in the mid to upper 60s.

Skies will become mostly clear this evening, but an approaching
cold front will bring clouds back into the area from NW to SE
overnight. The front will be fairly moisture starved with just a
modest area of saturation present in the mid levels, but still
some isolated showers will be possible as it moves across the
forecast area overnight, with areas across the northern coastal
plain having the best chance of seeing any light precip. Despite
the cooler airmass, clouds and wind will keep temps from falling
too drastically, and have lows mostly in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Breezy but warmer conditions expected
tomorrow behind the cold front as high pressure begins to build
in from the west. Rebounding low level heights as well as
downsloping westerly flow will help highs reach the mid to upper
70s across ENC, with a few 80 readings possible south of US 70.

The combination of warm temps, a dry airmass, and breezy
conditions could contribute to some elevated fire weather
potential tomorrow afternoon, but the recent rains yesterday
as well as only marginal expected conditions should limit the
threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Dry and cool weather will continue early
next week as high pressure builds across the area. Unsettled
weather will impact ENC on Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure
tracks across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. High pressure
builds in on Thursday but another low pressure system will
impact the area late in the week.

Sunday Night through Monday night...High pressure will become
centered off the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night then will migrate
offshore on Monday while ridging builds aloft. Temps will be
seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday and in
the upper 70s/lower 80s on Monday. Dew points will be much below
normal however in the mid 40s to mid 50s making for very
comfortable conditions.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Vertically stacked low
pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and
then push across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before pushing
off the coast Wednesday night. Precip chances increase through
the day Tuesday and peak Tuesday night as upper level diffluence
and southern stream moisture increases across the area with
PWATs peaking around 1.75". Additional showers will push across
the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc
cold front pushes across the area. Could see a few elevated
thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night but clouds and precip
will limit instability and any severe potential appears minimal.
However, Wednesday will have a better chance for stronger
storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and
greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear.
Most of the area will likely see a soaking rain with precip
amounts around 1-1.5" through the period. Temps will continue to
be seasonable with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 Tuesday
and low to mid 80s on Wednesday.

Thursday through Friday...There is some disparity among the
models with how the mid week system transitions as it moves
offshore late Wednesday with most guidance opening the upper low
into a wave with the system progressively moving east into the
western Atlantic allowing for upper ridging to build aloft
bringing a dry forecast. However, some guidance, e.g. the 00z
operational ECMWF, maintains a closed low as it tracks across
the Mid-Atlantic and stalls the low just off the Delmarva on
Thursday keeping cyclonic flow over the area which will bring
greater cloud cover with a few showers persisting across the
area. Since most guidance keeps a progressive solution have kept
PoPs below mentionable for Thursday at this time. Models are in
better agreement with another southern stream system quickly
moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance
differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the
Southeast and off the coast. But despite the differences, most
guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across
much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Afternoon/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through
tomorrow as the low levels remain dry. That being said a mostly
dry cold front will push through the airspace tonight, and bring
with it some 4000-6000 ft ceilings and some isolated showers.
Skies will clear tomorrow morning with VFR conditions
continuing.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of3 PM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Monday as high pressure builds across the region. A low
pressure system will impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday with
deteriorating conditions expected Tuesday with periods of sub-
VFR continuing into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tomorrow/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Improving conditions will continue through
tomorrow though it will still remain breezy. SCAs remain for the
central and northern waters through this evening due to
lingering seas, while headlines are gone for all other zones.

Winds this afternoon will steadily decrease out of the north at
5-15 kts, and then veer quickly around to the south this evening
at 10 kts or less ahead of a cold front. The front will push
through the forecast area early tomorrow morning with winds
turning to the WNW behind it at 10-20 kts, and some brief gusts
to 25 kts will be possible. WNW to NW winds then continue
tomorrow at around 15-20 kts.

Seas will be 4-6 ft through this evening, and drop to 3-5 ft
overnight and through most of tomorrow. Some 6 ft seas could
briefly creep into the central zones tomorrow morning in
response to the uptick in winds.

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...High pressure builds into the waters
Sunday night, then moves offshore Monday. A low pressure system
will impact the waters Tuesday into Wednesday.

A backdoor front will push through Sunday night with easterly
winds around 15 kt or less developing Monday with seas around
2-4 ft. Southerly winds increase Tuesday ahead of the low
pressure system and expect a period of Small Craft Advisory
conditions to develop and continue into Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/SGK
MARINE...SK/SGK