Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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102 FXUS63 KMPX 060802 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest winds today will gust as high as 30 to 40 mph. - A few showers are possible this afternoon, with better precipitation chances arriving Friday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 20243 Cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes is the main weather story for today, and the resulting gusty northwest winds, slightly cooler temperatures and a few light showers across parts of the area. A 35-kt 850 mb jet on the west side of the Great Lakes upper low will favor gusts as high as 40 mph across much of the area later this morning through the afternoon, with the highest gusts over western and southwest Minnesota where boundary layer mixing will be deeper. A few gusts could approach wind advisory criteria of 45 mph across these areas, but held off on any headlines for now since gusts should generally stay just shy of this threshold. Cold air advection will also favor some scattered light showers, mostly north and northeast of I-94 where better low-level moisture will be available. Instability will be much weaker and shallower than on Wednesday, and therefore should act against any kind of hail/gusty wind threat with this activity. Broad ridging will begin to build in from the west by Friday and bring a return to near-normal temperatures, generally in the mid 70s. A weak upper wave passing to the north Friday night will bring another round of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder or two to much of the area. Limited moisture return and instability will act against any strong storm or heavy rainfall threat. Heading into the weekend and early next week, quasizonal upper flow will maintain near/slightly below-average temperatures for much of the period before ridging gradually starts to return toward the end of the week. Weak waves embedded in this pattern will provide a few chances for rain, most notably Tuesday and again Wednesday night/Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Gusts will begin to increase overnight as the influence of evening convection wanes. Gusts will increase markedly after 13-14Z with forecast soundings indicating winds as high as 40-45 kts possible at the top of the mixed layer. This should result in surface gusts of 35-40 kts, with even stronger sporadic gusts possible. Stratocu will develop around the same time, but should remain VFR. KMSP...Winds seem to have settled westerly again with a gradual increase expected overnight. Gusts greater than 35 kts possible after 14Z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind NW 15G25kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 15G25kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DPH AVIATION...Borghoff