046
FXUS63 KMPX 112333
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
633 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe/extreme geomagnetic storm continues tonight, but
  increased mid level cloud cover will make viewing a little
  less vibrant than last night.

- Sunny and warm on Sunday with in the 80s.

- Widespread rain chances return Wednesday through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Early morning satellite imagery showed clear
skies and light westerly winds across Minnesota, with northwest
winds and a few cumulus clouds over Wisconsin. Further upstream,
some thin cirrus was located across the Dakotas and southern Canada,
and this is forecast to move overhead later tonight. With another
display of aurora on tap for tonight, the high clouds could limit
the vibrancy a bit as opposed to last night.

On Sunday, southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front will
allow temperatures to warm into the 80s. The front is forecast to
move through during the afternoon and evening. This front will pass
through dry, but there is a small chance for showers and
thunderstorms across southern/eastern MN and western WI. The lack of
instability is the limiting factor in the very low risk for severe
weather. The SPC Day2 outlook has general thunder forecast, with a
sliver of Marginal touching far eastern Rusk/Chippewa/Eau Claire
counties.

On Monday this cold front will stall out to the south, keeping most
of the region north of I-90 dry through at least Tuesday. On
Wednesday, a shortwave trough will approach from the west, and this
will be the focus for a rather prolonged period of rain chances.
Based on the ensemble guidance, most if not all locations will see
rain from Wednesday through Thursday, with smaller chances
continuing into next weekend. The severe weather risk appears low
with this system. Mid level lapse rates will only be on the order of
6 to 7C/km, and most likely only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE.
Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs in the 70s and lows in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR with just some high cirrus clouds for most and a little
dirunal cumulus over western MN and western WI. Some increase in
cloud coverage overnight from SKC/FEW to SCT, but should remain
VFR. Winds overnight should be light and shift to the south.
Winds will shift on Sunday back to the west with some gusts up
around 20 knots. There will be a chance for showers or storms in
the afternoon/evening Sunday. Mainly southern MN into western WI
(MKT/EAU best shot).

KMSP... VFR through the period, although some increased sky
coverage expected tonight. Winds will shift to the south tonight
and then to the west on Sunday. Chance for some
afternoon/evening showers/storms, but the best chances appear
south of the airport. So have opted to keep mention out of the
TAFs for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind N 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind E at 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR becoming MVFR/RA. Wind S 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...NDC