786
FXUS66 KMTR 121729
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1029 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Cooler today in response to a weak frontal passage. Quiet through
the rest of the week with temperatures at or slightly above seasonal
averages by the weekend. Potential for wind and increased fire
danger towards Sunday and into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday by a few to several
degrees (especially across the interior) as a weak frontal boundary
moved through the region. Thus, only Minor HeatRisk are expected
across the region with isolated pockets reaching the moderate levels
across the far interior. Temperatures this afternoon will range from
the 60`s near the coast, 70`s to lower 80`s around the bayshore and
other locations just inland, and into the upper 80`s to mid/upper
90`s across the far interior (places such as Cloverdale and
Knoxville).

Tonight, expecting more widespread stratus to penetrate inland as
the marine layer begins to deepen. Overnight low temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 40`s across the North Bay and San
Francisco Peninsula with low/mid 50`s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Not much to write home about as we head through the latter half of
the week. Warm afternoons with temps getting down to around
seasonal averages by the weekend. The next thing in the timeline
that we are watching closely will be during the late weekend to
early next week timeframe. Ensemble cluster analysis depicts a
slight pattern change with decent confidence that will bring windy
conditions to the region. It currently looks like the highest
winds will be confined to the waters and coastal areas, and some
over the higher terrain. With this pattern, it appears the winds
would be more northwesterly, thus, holding off on any mention of
"offshore" for now as the position of the trough currently does
not support that. However, with grasses and fine fuels drying out
rapidly, it looks like the Sunday-Monday timeframe is one to
watch when it comes to elevated fire danger, particularly in the
North Bay where fine fuels are drier than elsewhere around the Bay
Area and Central Coast. For now, moisture recovery looks decent
going into the weekend as winds should remain onshore, but we are
keeping a close eye on the positioning of the trough and will
update messaging accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Satellite shows the stratus continues to linger over Monterey Bay.
With the slight eddy rotation, expect ceiling to linger longer into
early afternoon. Otherwise, VFR for the remainder of the terminals.
MVFR-IFR conditions will return for Monterey Bay late afternoon and
MVFR conditions will build for North Bay late tonight, as the other
remaining terminals will remain VFR. With the building marine layer,
expect some scattered low clouds to reach some of the remaining
terminals, but moderate confidence that conditions will remain VFR.
Winds will become breezy and gusty this afternoon into the evening,
before becoming light to moderate overnight.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR continue with N/NW moderate winds. Onshore
winds will build to breezy and gusty this afternoon up to 25 knots
before returning to moderate by the night. Models hint at MVFR
tonight but had low confidence to include in TAFs at this moment but
included a SCT group to indicate low clouds will surround the
airport.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR conditions continue but ceilings are
slowly lifting. Models show ceilings may not lift to VFR through the
TAF period, but confidence is low so expect brief VFR near 20-21Z.
MVFR will have a early return near 23Z. SW winds will continue
through the TAF period with increasing speeds near the afternoon
with possible gusty up to 20 knots. The SW direction winds will make
it harder for ceilings to clear and will allow for a early return of
MVFR-IFR conditions this afternoon into Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1028 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Northwesterly winds continue over the northern waters through the
end of the week with gale force gusts possible over the northern
waters through the day today, but diminish into the late night
tonight. Widespread strong northwesterly winds with gale force
gusts will build in by the weekend and continue into next week.
Significant wave heights diminish later today to become 10-12 feet
over the outer waters, and last through the remainder of the
week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO

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