051
FXUS66 KMTR 111727
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1027 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The hottest temperatures are expected today with a Heat Advisory
posted for interior areas. Starting Wednesday, the cool down begins
as zonal flow resumes.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Temperatures appear on track with the current forecast temps and
stratus clearing, so will not make any changes this morning. Heat
Advisory officially goes into effect at 11AM this morning and will
run through 8PM this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The interior is forecast to reach into the mid 90`s to 102 degrees
this afternoon. Thus, a Heat Advisory is posted for interior
portions of the region from 11 AM to 8 PM. This is where HeatRisk
are at moderate levels with a few isolated spots at major levels in
the far inland portions of the North Bay and East Bay. This is where
impacts will be greatest to all who are sensitive to heat (ill,
young, elderly, pregnant) and those who are without adequate cooling
and/or hydration. Continued onshore flow will keep conditions cooler
near the immediate coast with mid/upper 60`s to low 70`s with 80`s
to low 90`s around the bayshore.

For anyone participating in outdoors activities today, remember to
drink plenty of water and to take plenty of breaks in a cool/shaded
area. For anyone planning to visit the coast or a nearby body of
water: remember to wear a life jacket, ideally swim near a
lifeguard, and be aware of the risks of cold water shock.

Temperatures this evening will cool fairly quickly as onshore flow
increases with overnight lows generally in the 50`s (warmer in the
higher elevations). Low clouds look to return overnight,
particularly within the Monterey Bay region and along the SF
Peninsula, with patchy fog possible along the Central Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 217 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Wednesday`s highs will range from the mid 80`s to low 90`s inland
with a few areas potentially reaching the upper 90`s (places such as
Lake Berryessa). Wednesday marks the last day with isolated moderate
HeatRisk as upper level ridging moves out of the area. Thursday
through Monday, widespread minor heat risk continues and inland
highs will drop back into the 80`s to low 90`s. For coastal areas,
high temperatures will continue to be in the upper 50`s to mid 60`s
as onshore flow persists.

Gustier, drier conditions look possible this weekend. Remember to
exercise caution when using campfires and grills/smokers to prevent
sparks from reaching ignition sources as recent grass fires (Crystal
Fire, Corral Fire) have shown small fuels (such as grasses) are
nearly dry and are becoming more susceptible to burning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

LIFR-IFR stratus persists at the immediate coast, but is generally
expected to gradually mix out through the rest of the day. Breezy
onshore flow, generally from the northwest, is expected to develop
this afternoon with gusts up to 15 knots. Stratus returns to the
Monterey Bay region, Salinas Valley, and the Gilroy-Hollister region
tonight, and generally limited to the immediate coastal region
elsewhere. Models indicate that afternoon and evening winds will
turn to a more southwesterly direction on Wednesday.

Vicinity of SFO... High confidence of VFR through the TAF period.
OAK sees a low probability (less than 10%) of IFR-LIFR stratus
tonight, but with very low confidence in said scenario the TAF
remains VFR throughout. West-northwest winds gusting to 20-25 knots
this afternoon and evening, diminishing overnight before they turn
towards the southwest on Wednesday, becoming somewhat more intense
with gusts up to 25-30 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR continues through the day with stratus
at the immediate coast diminishing through the afternoon. Breezy
onshore winds developing this afternoon and evening, with gusts up
to 15-20 knots at SNS. LIFR stratus returns late tonight and through
Wednesday morning. Timing of clearing is somewhat uncertain but a
persistence forecast has the clearing just before the end of the TAF
period. Breezy onshore winds return to the region on Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 917 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Strong northwest winds over the outer waters continue through
midweek, with gale-force gusts over the northern outer waters
expected through early Wednesday. Winds diminish in the afternoon
Wednesday. Significant wave heights 13 to 15 feet possible in the
northern outer waters through Wednesday. Significant wave heights
will mostly be dominated by wind driven waves, though there is a
moderate northwesterly swell and a low southwesterly swell mixed
in.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ504-506-510-
     513>515-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
     10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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