483
FXUS64 KOHX 110507
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1207 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Tweaked hourly gridded temperature, dewpoint, wind direction/speed
grids blending them with previously forecasted late evening hourly
gridded values. Current regional temperature trends continuing to
support forecasted overnight low values. 11/00Z KOHX Sounding
profile depicting moisture supporting a continuance of a few CU
as these early evening hours progress but a continuance of a
stable atmosphere in place as low level atmospheric ridging
influences along with dry northwesterly upper level flow prevails.
Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

After a foggy start to the morning, the area is clear with pleasant
temperatures for this time of year. Highs this afternoon will top
out in the mid 70s to lower 80s. There is a dry surface front
currently in southern Illinois through the Ohio River Valley that is
diving south. This will bring a slightly cooler and drier air mass
into our area for tonight and tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in the
low to mid 50s with even a couple spots touching the upper 40s on
the Upper Cumberland Plateau. There could be a few patches of fog
near dawn but dew point spreads are slightly higher than this
morning and the HREF is showing only a few patches of decreased
visibilities. Expect more clear skies and northerly winds tomorrow
as surface high pressure slides by the area to the north. We will
have one more cool night Tuesday night with temperatures in the
50s before we start the summer warm up.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Temperatures will begin an upward trend on Wednesday with highs in
the low to mid 80s, but the first noticeable difference will be
on Thursday with a large part of the area getting to 90 or above
as upper ridging influences start spreading eastward into
Tennessee. The ridging influences will only get stronger on Friday
as it moves eastward. By Saturday afternoon the upper high will
be parked over Middle Tennessee. Highs in the mid 90s Friday
through Sunday look reasonable. In addition to the increase in
temperatures, dew points will slowly climb from Thursday into the
weekend. By Sunday the center of the upper high will be east of
the area with some weak southerly flow increasing moisture. Some
heat index values Sunday afternoon could touch 100 degrees. As far
as rain chances, the best we are looking at is some isolated
activity on Sunday, but not all of the guidance agrees that will
happen.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will be light out of
the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      80  57  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    79  55  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     74  51  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       81  54  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     75  53  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      74  51  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   79  54  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   80  54  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        79  54  84  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Mueller