486
FXUS64 KOHX 130518
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1218 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, sky condition, and wind
direction/wind speed grids blending them with associated
previously forecasted hourly late evening gridded values.
Per analysis of current regional satellite imagery and latest
HRRR sky cover forecast through tonight, slightly decreased cloud
coverage from generally partly cloudy skies to mostly clear skies
remainder of evening hours tonight. Current regional temperature
trends in line with forecasted overnight lows. KOHX 13/00Z Sounding
showing despite warmup today, PWAT values are still only 0.77 inch
which is in the 10 percentile range for PWAT values for today with
riding influences surface and aloft prevailing. Remainder of
forecast continues to be on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1026 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A surface ridge is aligned just south of the Ohio Valley this
morning, leaving Middle Tennessee with a dry, stable atmosphere.
The ridge will gradually slide across the region during the next
couple of days and we can expect summer-like heat to build over
the mid state as a result.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1026 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The forecast is rain-free through Sunday night. Of particular note
is Sunday, when afternoon temperatures are expected to top out
near 100 degrees, but we do expect enough moisture advection to
lead to additional cloudiness and low POP`s beginning on Monday,
and also slightly cooler temperatures. Perhaps "not as hot" would
be more accurate, as the 6-10 day and 8-14 outlooks continue to
favor above normal temperatures for Middle Tennessee. QPF totals
for days 6-8 (nothing prior to day 6) are coming in under 1/4"
across most of the mid state. So the rainy pattern that persisted
throughout May and the first week of June has definitely shifted.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Some patchy fog will be
possible until 12z in the vicinity of KSRB and may bring MVFR/IFR
conditions at times. FEW to SCT 050 clouds develop for eastern
terminals after 16z tomorrow. Light winds under 5 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      93  68  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    89  64  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     85  63  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       92  65  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     87  65  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      86  63  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   91  65  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   93  65  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        89  64  92  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Mueller