Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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278 FXUS64 KOHX 091123 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 623 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing just off to the west of the mid state, with a line of severe thunderstorms working their way eastward. Latest analysis shows instability falling off as the storms move east, with not too much over the mid state currently, so the storms should continue to weaken and be sub severe before crossing the TN River. Will continue to monitor instability trends just in case these storms try and hold together. CAMs have this first wave of convection weakening and diving southeastward, so expect some showers and storms for the east and south during the morning hours. A break in more scattered convection looks to occur during the mid to late morning, with more isolated showers and a storm or two, before the next round moves in this afternoon. Existing boundary over the region will sink southward during the afternoon, allowing for more showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southwest flow to the south of the front will bring additional heat and moisture to the mid state, increasing instability. Deep layer shear will remain strong, especially with a shortwave trough moving through during the day. This will allow for some strong to severe storms to develop during the afternoon, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. However, PWAT values will be high, allowing for heavy rain and a potential flooding threat especially with any stronger storms training over localized areas this afternoon. Showers and storms should continue southward with the front and be out of the mid state around midnight or so. A drier period moves in after that to start the week, with a Midwest trough swinging southward Monday but looking dry at the moment. CAA will keep high temps in the mid 70s to around 80 on Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Ridging looks to work its way in for the remainder of the week, with a warming trend through the week as well. Afternoon showers and storms may work their way back into the forecast Thursday into the weekend, but high temps will be in the low 90s Thursday through Sunday. Long term ensembles suggest a Plains trough could move in later on Sunday into early next week, along with remnants of a tropical low from the Gulf, so the drier period looks to only be in place for this week. Either way, it looks like the heat of summer will finally arrive later this week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 MVFR cigs are expected to spread across the area this morning and into the afternoon. Isolated showers are possible this morning before becoming more scattered in coverage after 17Z. Visibilities may lower at times during periods of heavier rain. Otherwise, W/SW winds will become N/NW this afternoon behind a front. Improvement back to VFR is possible after 00Z once rain chances diminish. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 81 60 80 56 / 70 20 0 0 Clarksville 78 57 79 54 / 60 20 0 0 Crossville 76 54 75 51 / 70 20 0 0 Columbia 83 59 81 55 / 60 20 0 0 Cookeville 77 56 76 52 / 70 20 0 0 Jamestown 76 55 75 50 / 60 20 0 0 Lawrenceburg 83 59 80 55 / 60 20 0 0 Murfreesboro 82 59 81 54 / 70 20 0 0 Waverly 79 57 80 55 / 70 20 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnwell LONG TERM....Barnwell AVIATION.....Clements