Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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654 FXUS64 KOHX 090134 AAB AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Nashville TN 834 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 824 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Rain-free conditions continuing this evening as a pleasant night will remain through roughly midnight. After that time frame, the complex of storms currently across Missouri will continue its southeast trek for Middle Tennessee bringing showers and thunderstorms during the very early morning hours. Instability parameters continue to look fairly weak although a few wind gusts above 30mph are not out of the question. However for the most part, think these will just be noise makers overnight. Once that complex moves out after sunrise, the continued northwest flow pattern will keep showers and some thunderstorms continuously moving through the area for a good chunk of the day on Sunday before the front clears the area Sunday evening bringing dry conditions. With back to back areas of thunderstorms impacting Middle Tennessee, just do not think the atmosphere will recover enough for that 2nd round to produce severe weather. Lightning, heavy rainfall, and a few wind gusts will be the main concerns on Sunday through roughly 7pm. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday night) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Conditions are pretty much as expected today with showers moving in from the northwest and mostly dissipating as they run into drier and more stable air in place over Middle Tennessee. A few spots may pick up a few raindrops over the next few hours, but for the most part we will see just some patches of mid level clouds. These clouds will be thick enough to impact temps. More sunny area will reach the mid 80s, but cloudier locations like our northwest counties will be held to the lower 80s. Rain-free conditions and partly cloudy skies will be in place for most areas through midnight. After that, rain chances will increase significantly late night into Sunday morning as the next disturbance in northwest flow aloft brings numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. The greatest coverage of rainfall will be located across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area. A few of the storms could contain gusty winds of 30 to maybe 40 mph, but we are not looking for severe weather given the very weak instability. The bulk of the showers and storms will move out of the area by midday Sunday, but additional scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in the afternoon as a cold front drops into the area. The afternoon storms could pack a little more punch with local downpours and gusty winds as more instability will be available. Still, we are not expecting a significant severe wx threat. The cold front will sink southward Sunday evening, shutting off rain chances from north to south. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The forecast for next week continues to look unusually quiet for mid-June due to a building upper level ridge across the southern states. We cannot rule out a few storms here and there through the week as some minor impulses cross the region. But overall the week will be drier than normal. The workweek will start out cooler and less humid than normal thanks to Sunday evening`s cold front passage. After that, it will warm up each day, and by next weekend we will reach full summer mode with hot and humid conditions. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Several admendments probable after 09/08Z per wx element fluctuations. Addressed best chance of periodic tstms in TEMPO groups, although tstms could occur outside time intervals. Initial VFR ceilings will become MVFR after 09/08Z. Sfc winds will slowly veer SW to NW thru 09/24Z but generally remain below 10kts. VFR vsbys should prevail/MVFR vsbys during tstms periods. Addressed shwr chances after 09/18Z with vcnty shwr remarks per expected areal convection coverage decrease. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 69 81 60 81 / 70 70 20 0 Clarksville 69 78 58 79 / 70 60 10 0 Crossville 64 76 55 75 / 50 80 30 0 Columbia 69 84 60 81 / 60 70 30 0 Cookeville 66 77 56 76 / 50 70 30 0 Jamestown 64 75 55 75 / 40 70 20 0 Lawrenceburg 68 83 60 80 / 60 70 40 0 Murfreesboro 69 83 59 81 / 70 70 30 0 Waverly 68 80 58 80 / 80 60 20 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Hurley SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....JB Wright