645
FXUS64 KOHX 080657
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
157 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Quite the pleasant night across Middle Tennessee with current
temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s with comfortable dewpoints
in the mid to upper 50s. This pleasantry will gradually come to
an end today as clouds and low level moisture begin increasing
ahead of an incoming but dying MCS approaching from the
northwest. Still appears a few showers will move across at least
northern parts of the cwa late this morning into the afternoon
with the remnants of the MCS, so will keep a slight chance pop
through then but the evening looks dry.

Rain chances will increase significantly after midnight tonight
into Sunday morning as widespread showers and thunderstorms
arrive from the northwest thanks to a passing shortwave trough.
Highest pops will be across the northern two-thirds of the
forecast area, which is in line with the latest HRRR model runs.
Could see a couple strong storms as well with gusty winds as
forecast soundings show fairly strong deep layer shear for early
June up to 50 knots, but instability appears weak which will keep
any threat low. Bulk of showers and storms will move out of the
area by midday Sunday, but some scattered activity is still likely
through the afternoon - and again can`t rule out a strong storm
or two. Cold front will sink southward through the midstate
Sunday night and end precip chances from north to south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Forecast for next week looks unusually quiet for mid-June due to
a building upper level ridge along the Gulf Coast and weak
northwest flow aloft, both of which will keep us high and dry.
Post-cold front airmass for early next week will make it feel
quite nice for this time of the year, with highs only in the mid
70s to low 80s and comfortable dewpoints down into the 50s.
Unfortunately, low level moisture and temperatures will begin
rising by midweek as low level flow becomes more southerly and
upper ridging strengthens, so we will enter our more typical hot
and humid summertime weather regime as we reach mid June. Highs
look to heat up back into mid 80s to low 90s from Thursday onward
as dewpoints increase into the 60s and low 70s, which will create
uncomfortable heat indicies in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Expecting mainly VFR conditions for all terminals through the TAF
period. Some MVFR fog will be possible at KSRB overnight, and
could also occur at KCSV. Short term models do develop some
showers moving in from the northwest after 12Z, and could impact
KCKV/KBNA/KMQY, but model confidence is low on coverage, so kept
VFR conditions at those terminals for now. Southerly winds around
5 to 10 knots will return by 15Z at all terminals and continue
through the early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  71  83  62 /  20  50  70  20
Clarksville    84  69  79  58 /  20  60  70  20
Crossville     80  64  77  56 /  20  50  70  20
Columbia       88  69  85  61 /  20  40  50  20
Cookeville     81  66  78  57 /  20  50  70  20
Jamestown      80  64  76  55 /  20  50  70  20
Lawrenceburg   86  68  84  61 /  20  40  50  20
Murfreesboro   88  68  84  60 /  20  50  60  20
Waverly        86  69  80  60 /  20  50  60  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Barnwell