Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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712 FXUS64 KOHX 080113 CCA AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 812 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 751 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 No change with this evening update. Still expecting temperatures to drop down into the 60s with efficient radiation cooling overnight before warming back into the upper 80s across the W CWA and upper 70s to low 80s across the E CWA Saturday. As for precipitation chances, an MCS is still expected to develop and move into portions of our NW CWA by Saturday morning. Most of the shower activity will remain N of Middle TN, but some light showers and sprinkles will be possible through the morning as the MCS weakens and dissipates. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Dry high pressure has been moving into Middle TN today. The dry air and full sunshine has allowed deep vertical mixing, giving us pleasant humidity levels and a nice north breeze to go along with seasonable warmth. We will have fantastic conditions tonight as the dry air allows temps to drop off through the 70s and into the 60s this evening, reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s late in the night. We continue to look for development of an MCS up to our northwest tonight. This batch of showers and storms will make a run at us by Saturday morning, but most of the system will break up as it encounters dry and stable air in place across Middle Tennessee. Still, we could have a few brief showers or sprinkles as the remnants of the system cross the area Saturday morning and midday. We do not expect any thunderstorms with this activity. The main result will be some mid level clouds and very brief light showers that should not have much if any impact on outdoor events. Otherwise, increasing sunshine in the afternoon will warm it up with highs in the 80s area-wide. Humidity levels will be a little higher Saturday, but still quite tolerable. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Better rain chances will come late Saturday night into Sunday as another batch of rain and storms comes our way from the northwest. This batch is expected to hold together with widespread showers and some rumbles of thunder. Surface conditions appear too stable for any severe wx risk. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front drops into the area. By mid afternoon Sunday, humidity levels will be higher and there will be some pockets of instability, so a couple of strong storms with downpours and gusty wind cannot be ruled out, but we are not seeing a widespread severe risk. Passage of the cold front late Sunday into Sunday night will bring another shot of cooler and drier air, but there will remain a lingering risk for a few showers or storms Monday as the boundary moves southward across the region. The trend for next week will be a pleasantly cool and drier start to the week with warming temperatures and increasing humidity throughout the week. Some scattered showers or storms cannot be ruled out at times, but at this point, models are deflecting the bulk of next week`s disturbances and rain chances away from our area. By next weekend, temps and humidity levels will creep up into "hot and humid" territory with heat index values possible approaching 100. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions anticipated at all TAF sites throughout the forecast period. High clouds should move in around sunrise tomorrow, but will not impact ceilings. Can`t rule out a shower at CKV, BNA, and MQY but chances are still too low to include even a VCSH in the TAF. Light winds will prevail once west winds subside at sunset. Generally south winds expected tomorrow yet still quite light. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 63 87 70 83 / 0 20 50 40 Clarksville 61 84 69 79 / 10 20 60 50 Crossville 55 80 63 77 / 0 20 40 40 Columbia 59 87 68 85 / 0 20 30 30 Cookeville 58 80 65 78 / 0 20 50 40 Jamestown 56 79 64 76 / 0 20 50 40 Lawrenceburg 59 86 67 84 / 0 20 30 30 Murfreesboro 58 87 67 84 / 0 20 40 30 Waverly 61 86 68 82 / 0 20 50 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Cravens SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Husted