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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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443 FXUS64 KOHX 071732 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1232 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Dry high pressure has been moving into Middle TN today. The dry air and full sunshine has allowed deep vertical mixing, giving us pleasant humidity levels and a nice north breeze to go along with seasonable warmth. We will have fantastic conditions tonight as the dry air allows temps to drop off through the 70s and into the 60s this evening, reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s late in the night. We continue to look for development of an MCS up to our northwest tonight. This batch of showers and storms will make a run at us by Saturday morning, but most of the system will break up as it encounters dry and stable air in place across Middle Tennessee. Still, we could have a few brief showers or sprinkles as the remnants of the system cross the area Saturday morning and midday. We do not expect any thunderstorms with this activity. The main result will be some mid level clouds and very brief light showers that should not have much if any impact on outdoor events. Otherwise, increasing sunshine in the afternoon will warm it up with highs in the 80s area-wide. Humidity levels will be a little higher Saturday, but still quite tolerable. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Better rain chances will come late Saturday night into Sunday as another batch of rain and storms comes our way from the northwest. This batch is expected to hold together with widespread showers and some rumbles of thunder. Surface conditions appear too stable for any severe wx risk. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front drops into the area. By mid afternoon Sunday, humidity levels will be higher and there will be some pockets of instability, so a couple of strong storms with downpours and gusty wind cannot be ruled out, but we are not seeing a widespread severe risk. Passage of the cold front late Sunday into Sunday night will bring another shot of cooler and drier air, but there will remain a lingering risk for a few showers or storms Monday as the boundary moves southward across the region. The trend for next week will be a pleasantly cool and drier start to the week with warming temperatures and increasing humidity throughout the week. Some scattered showers or storms cannot be ruled out at times, but at this point, models are deflecting the bulk of next week`s disturbances and rain chances away from our area. By next weekend, temps and humidity levels will creep up into "hot and humid" territory with heat index values possible approaching 100. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions will continue to prevail for the taf period. Some fog cannot be completely ruled out at SRB, but probability is too low to include. A light shower or sprinkles are possible CKV/BNA/MQY Saturday morning, but chances are low and there will be no impacts to visibilities. Winds through this afternoon will be out of the NW around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Winds will relax below 5 kts after 00z. Winds will increase to around 5 kts Saturday morning out of the S/SSW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 63 88 70 85 / 0 20 60 60 Clarksville 61 86 69 81 / 10 20 60 60 Crossville 55 80 63 77 / 0 20 70 80 Columbia 59 87 68 86 / 0 20 60 50 Cookeville 58 81 65 78 / 0 20 70 70 Jamestown 56 80 64 75 / 0 20 80 80 Lawrenceburg 59 86 67 86 / 0 20 50 50 Murfreesboro 58 87 67 85 / 0 20 60 60 Waverly 61 86 68 83 / 0 20 60 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Reagan