Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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779 FXUS64 KOHX 061346 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 846 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 837 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 As of 830 AM CDT, a mostly cloudy and muggy morning continued across Middle Tennessee. A few showers were noted from the Upper Cumberland back to the Murfreesboro area, along a pre-frontal surface trough. As this trough continues to move southeastward, it will sweep rain chances completely out of our area by mid afternoon. Still, very warm and humid air will remain in place. Partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon will allow temps to warm well into the 80s to around 90. A more pronounced surface cold front will start to bring drier air later this afternoon, and that trend will continue with much cooler and less humid conditions for Friday. A quick morning update was issued to freshen trends, but no major forecast changes were needed. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Warm and very humid night across Middle Tennessee with current temperatures/dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Just a few showers across the area on radar currently, but CAMs such as the HRRR indicate additional showers and possibly a few thunderstorms should pop up later this morning across our eastern half before moving out during the afternoon. Despite this precip, today looks quite warm with highs well into the 80s areawide. A cold front will push through the midstate tonight with a few showers possible along the front, before a much drier and cooler airmass arrives behind the boundary. Friday looks spectacular for early June with highs only in the mid 70s to low 80s, comfortable humidity with low dewpoints in the low to mid 50s, and no rain in sight. Friday night looks equally nice with the low dewpoints allowing min temps to drop into the 50s to around 60. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 For Saturday, models continue to indicate a MCS across Missouri will make a run at us during the day. However, it will run into the dry and stable airmass in place over our region, and is anticipated to fall apart before or as it reaches or northwest counties. Main question is how far any precip with the MCS will penetrate into Middle Tennessee before it dissipates, but model consensus has only slight pops in our northwest for now. Another cold front will sink southward from the Midwest on Saturday night, with another loosely organized MCS shown to develop in southern Missouri then move across the midstate during the day on Sunday. This MCS should survive through our area thanks to deeper moisture, a stronger shortwave aloft, and the incoming frontal boundary focus, so expect fairly widespread showers and storms during the day on Sunday with high chance to likely pops. Forecast soundings do not show much instability and only weak shear on Sunday, so strong to severe storm threat looks very low attm. 00Z GFS/ECMWF show rain moving out of the midstate Sunday night, but will keep some slight chance pops into Monday until the front fully clears us to the south. Northwest flow aloft and a building upper level ridge looks to bring us a warming trend and lengthy dry period for the rest of the forecast period, with highs creeping back up to the 90 degree mark by Thursday. Models continue to suggest a tropical system could develop in the Gulf of Mexico by next weekend, but even if it does weak steering currents aloft and main polar jet stream near the Canadian border should keep any impacts to our south. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Light rain showers or sprinkles will push east early, with minimal impact at BNA, MQY, SRB, and CSV. Winds will continue to shift to the northwest with some isolated gusts to near 15kts possible this afternoon. Overnight, winds will be come light and will need to monitor for possible VIS restrictions late. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 89 62 83 61 / 10 0 0 0 Clarksville 87 59 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 81 55 75 53 / 50 0 0 0 Columbia 89 60 83 58 / 10 0 0 0 Cookeville 84 56 77 56 / 40 0 0 0 Jamestown 82 55 76 53 / 50 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 88 60 82 58 / 20 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 89 59 83 57 / 20 0 0 0 Waverly 88 59 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......13 SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION.....05