Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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950 FXUS64 KOHX 120159 AAA AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Nashville TN 859 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 859 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Tweaked hourly gridded temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction grids blending them with associated previously forecasted hourly gridded late evening values. Current regional temperature trends continue to be in line with forecasted overnight low values. KOHX 12/00Z sounding really showing extent of how much ridging influences surface through low to mid atmospheric levels are currently in play. Derived PW values are only around 0.49 inch for a early summertime night with sounding trace profiles and other derived indicies showing a stable airmass in place across our area. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1042 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Surface high pressure is centered to our north, with Middle Tennessee still on the "cool side" of the ridge. The spring-like temperatures we are currently enjoying will not last much longer. During the next couple of days, the surface ridge will slide across the mid state, and summer will then come at us quickly. Until then, the atmosphere remains very dry. (The morning Precipitable Water at OHX was only 0.44", which is close to a record low value for June 11.) && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1042 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 By Thursday, many Middle Tennessee locations will reach 90 degrees or better. Temperatures will keep increasing through Sunday, when expected highs will get very close to triple digits. Beyond Sunday, there are low rain chance beginning on Monday, but the models really start to diverge at this point; we might not see rain until later in the week, in fact. While temperatures will back off somewhat next week, we will stay above normal for the foreseeable future. Even the 8-14 day outlook keeps us above normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions expected this cycle. A thick patch of high clouds will move in overnight, otherwise SKC conditions prevail. Northerly winds near 10 kts will continue over the next several hours before going light and variable overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 56 85 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 53 83 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 51 81 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 55 85 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 54 81 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 51 81 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 55 84 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 54 86 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 55 84 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......JB Wright SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Baggett