758
FXUS61 KOKX 072358
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
758 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure persists over the area, with a cold front
expected to move through on Sunday, followed by a series of
weaker cold fronts Monday and Tuesday. High pressure then builds
in for the middle of next week. A cold front may approach for
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Isolated showers bringing brief wind gusts to 30-35 mph, in
response to a strong short wave rotating around the base of a
broader trough, will dissipate after sunset with loss of diurnal
instability. Otherwise, a drier air mass will advect into the
area tonight in the wake of departing cold front.

Overnight temperatures will be cooler than the previous night
with the change in air mass, but close to climatological
normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weak ridging aloft and broad westerly flow will keep drier
conditions across the area Saturday, with seasonable highs
generally in the mid 70s to near 80. Humidity levels will remain
subjectively low as dew points lower into the low to mid 50s.

Overnight, another wave of low pressure approaches, with deep
layer flow becoming more oriented from the south to southwest,
allowing for an increase in moisture. The subsequent increase
in cloud cover overnight will once again keep low temperatures a
few degrees higher than Friday night, while rain chances may
increase from the northwest by Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**Key Points**

*Scattered shower threat with a frontal passage on Sunday, followed
by primarily dry and seasonably warm conditions for early to mid
week.

*Warming trend possible for late week.

Good model agreement in mean troughing through the early week period
with a portion of a large closed upper low over Quebec on Sunday,
splitting into the NE US Monday/Tuesday, before sliding offshore
midweek.

At the surface, models in good agreement with a cold front
approaching Sun afternoon and crossing Sun aft/eve ahead of the
approaching upper low. Strong upper mid level shortwave and upper
level jet lift just, combined with sufficient moisture pooling ahead
of front, support scattered showers translating across the region
Sunday morning into afternoon. Early approach of front and mid-level
capping not supportive for tstms, but a few downpours possible in
the late morn/early aft with weak instability below mixed phases
region.

Subsequent weaker cold frontal passages likely Monday and Tuesday
advecting in a slightly drier/cooler Canadian airmass as weakening
closed low moves overhead. This will bring potential for iso aft
shower activity off higher terrain and/or along sea breeze
boundaries.

Brief shortwave ridging on Wednesday appears to give way to a mean
zonal upper flow for late week. Generally dry conditions for mid
week as high pressure builds in from the west and then offshore.

Model spread increases with inherent forecast uncertainty for the
Day 5-7 time period. There is potential for a late week frontal
passage/s depending on shortwave timing in the upper flow.

As for temps, have gone with NBM/NBM 50th percentile blend through
the period based on recent performance and synoptic regime. Temps
within a degree or two of seasonable through early to mid week, then
potential for temps to warm a few to several degrees above
seasonable mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds in slowly to the southwest through
Saturday afternoon. A weak surface trough remains inland this
afternoon.

VFR. Gust front in association with showers to the north have
passed through most of the terminals and will continue onto
KISP and KGON in the next hour. Expecting up to an hour of NW
gusts around 25kt after an initial gust around 30kt with the
gust front. Thereafter, winds diminish and lose gusts as they
back slightly WNW. By 03z, winds should be no more than 10kt.

West winds increase Saturday with gusts developing late in the
morning. Gusts mostly 20-25kt for the late morning through
afternoon and early evening.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night-Sunday. VFR, however MVFR possible with a chance
of showers late Saturday night through Sunday. Sunday, W winds
G20- 25kt.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of showers late Tuesday.
Monday, W winds G20-25kt.

Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Statement issued for all waters regarding a gust front
resulting from showers to the north. Gusts around 30kt with the
front, and should be east and south of the waters by around 01z.

Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through
Saturday. Potential for marginal nearshore SCA gusts on Sunday
aft and Monday aft, with ocean seas remaining at 3 to 4 ft in SW
flow. Latest model guidance has trended toward a weak pressure
regime for mid to late next week, indicating a return to sub-SCA
conds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood statements remain in effect for this evening`s
high tide cycle. These are for southern Nassau and the western
LI Sound, as high astronomical tides and a southerly wind
component this afternoon may lead to some isolated minor
benchmarks being reached. Some vulnerable locations may again
just touch minor benchmarks Sat evening.

For the Atlantic ocean beaches a moderate to locally high rip
current risk continues into this evening. Moderate rip risk
expected for Saturday with a mix of residual 3 ft@7 sec swells
and 2-3 ft SW wind waves. Moderate rips risk likely once again
on Sunday with residual 1 to 2 ft S swells and building 2 to 3
ft SW wind waves. This is supported by the latest RCMOS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MD/NV
NEAR TERM...MD/NV
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MET/JC
MARINE...MD/NV/JC
HYDROLOGY...MD/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...