233
FXUS61 KOKX 102012
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
412 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak sfc trough over the area will move offshore tonight.
Another inland trough developing on Tuesday will also move
offshore Tuesday night, then high pressure will build across
during mid week. A cold front will approach on Friday and move
through in the afternoon and at night. High pressure will then
follow for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Some CAM`s still insistent on a few showers developing in the
BKN Cu field covering most of the area as a weak mid level
shortwave trough interacts with the sfc trough over the area.
This is likely overdone given dewpoint depressions close to 20
deg F, so if any showers do develop coverage should be isolated
and duration brief.

Skies should then become ptcldy to mostly clear after this wave
passes by and the sfc trough moves offshore. Temps tonight
should bottom out close to 60 in/around NYC and in the 50s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Another sfc trough develops inland daytime Tue, but with a
weaker pressure gradient expect better sea breeze development
in the afternoon along the coast. Another passing shortwave
could touch off an isolated late day shower well inland. Temps
should be similar to those of today, with highs again in the
70s.

This sfc trough will also move offshore, with clearing skies.
Low temps also look to be similar to those of tonight, ranging
from 60-65 in the NYC metro area, to the 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**Key Points**

* Big warm-up for the second half the week, followed by a brief
  cool-down for the weekend.

* Mostly dry conditions through the period.

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and Friday night
  with a cold front.

Weak surface high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday,
with mid-level shortwave lift approaching late in the day and
passing through during Wednesday night. There will be mid-level
capping for a good portion of the time, plus moisture and CAPE
will be limited by the time the shortwave can provide some lift
for showers. Will therefore continue with a dry forecast through
the period. NBM looked good for high temperatures, which will
be a few degree above normal. The flow aloft becomes more zonal
on Thursday with a continuation of dry weather. 850mb temps
rise, leading to highs in the 80s for most locations, and even
some 90 degree readings in the NE NJ urban corridor.

A shortwave will help sharpen a longwave trough on Friday as
both approach from the west on Friday. These will support a
cold front pushing through the forecast area - most likely
during the afternoon to evening hours. Have gone slightly above
NBM PoPs, but still capped them at chance for now. Thinking
CAPEs could end up higher than currently progged by global
models, the shortwave would promote steepening mid-level lapse
rates, and there could be upper jet streak lift as well.
Anticipating scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which
could be strong. Still too early to have too much confidence in
the severe weather potential, but given the aforementioned
ingredients along with progged 35-45kt 0-6km shear, trends will
need to be monitored for the possibility. 850mb temps rise to
around 16-17C. Went slightly below NBM for high temperatures,
mainly for inland areas, but still above average with lower 90s
in the typically warmest spots and mid/upper 80s for most other
locations.

High pressure then builds in from the NW during the weekend with
dry conditions and more comfortable dewpoints. High
temperatures still above normal both days. Looks like high
pressure hangs on for another dry and warmer day for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weakening low pressure remains over the Canadian Maritimes as
high pressure builds in from the west through Tuesday.

VFR. Sea breezes have developed along the Connecticut and
southern Long Island coasts, with winds more SW. Late day winds
may become more southerly, although confidence is low.
Otherwise winds remain westerly, with occasional gusts at KLGA.
Winds diminish this evening, possibly becoming light/variable at
the outlying terminals. Late tonight light N flow develops and
continues into Tuesday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A sea breeze moved through KJFK with winds SW, and late day
winds may become more southerly, although have low confidence.
The sea breeze is not expected at the other terminals with
winds remaining west.

Gusts at KLGA may be more occasional than frequent.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday afternoon through Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in afternoon and evening
showers/tstms.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet through Wed night. Then S winds on the ocean for Thursday
and Friday may gust near 25 kt, primarily west of Fire Island
Inlet, with seas possibly reaching 5 ft on Friday. Aside from
this,sub-advisory conditions are expected through the long term
period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected attm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A low risk of rip current development is expected at all the
ocean beaches for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC