191
FXUS66 KOTX 091122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through on Sunday with a chance
of showers and thunderstorms. Above normal temperatures will
continue though much of the week, with cooler temperatures by late
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Clouds are increasing across the Cascades and
southern Washington ahead of a trough passage later this
afternoon. Cloud cover will increase region wide through the
morning with some sprinkles or very light rain possible. CAM
models are showing shower and thunderstorm development this
afternoon. Through early afternoon the best chance of thunder
will be across the north Cascades and then the thunder threat will
expand across much of the region by mid to late afternoon. There
is a 15-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the the
Columbia Basin and onto the Palouse and Spokane/CdA area. Most
other locations have a 20-30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms, with the mountains having a 30-50% chance of
showers. The showers and thunderstorms will move east through the
day as the trough pushes through the region. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours, especially
across NE WA and the N ID Panhandle. Thunderstorms that do develop
will have lightning, small hail and gusty winds associated with
them. At this time, storms are not expected to be strong.

Monday: The trough exits and a shortwave ridge builds in. With
mostly sunny skies our temperatures will warm into the upper 70s
and 80s, which is still 8 to 10 degrees above average. There is a
20-30 percent chance of showers and a 15-20% chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon across north Idaho...mainly
Sandpoint northward. Southwest to west winds will pick up in the
afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts 15 to 25 mph across the typical
breezy spots...Wenatchee area eastward on the Columbia Basin,
Palouse and Spokane area. /Nisbet

Tuesday through Saturday: A shortwave slides through the region
early Tuesday that will bring increased cloud cover and breezy
winds. This shortwave will be mainly dry, with the best chance of
shower being over the Cascade crest and far northeastern mountains
in WA. As the shortwave is moving through, the upper jet will also
be positioned be over the PacNW, with speeds in excess of 100 kts.
All of this will allow for gusts 30 to 40 mph, with gusts up to 45
mph in the Waterville Plateau and northern half of the Columbia
Basin. The winds combined with dry air does bring some early fire
weather concerns to the region on Tuesday.

A ridge will begin to build back in for Wednesday and Thursday,
drying the region out yet again. Breezy conditions will continue but
will be lighter than Tuesdays winds with gusts of 20 to 35 mph.

Another trough will move through Friday but ensembles are having
trouble narrowing down the exact timing. Temperatures will trend
slightly below normal along with this system will be on the drier
side as well, with precipitation remaining confined to the
mountains. Winds will also increase as the pressure gradient
tightens, with breezy conditions returning for the weekend. /KM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. An incoming weather system
is bringing an increase in mid to high level clouds from the
south. This will bring a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers to
the region after 18Z. Thunderstorms will begin in the Cascades and
down around the Blues and then spread east and north through the
mid to late afternoon as the weather system moves across region.
The main concern with thunderstorms that develop will be gusty
outflow winds with gusts of 25-35 kts, lightning, brief downpours,
and small hail. The probabilities for thunderstorms to move over
a TAF site are too low (less than 25% probability) to include in
the TAFs at this moment, but do have mention of mention of
showers, which carries slightly higher confidence.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence remains high for VFR conditions through Sunday
afternoon, except for localized restrictions under any
thunderstorms that develop.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        80  54  81  53  81  47 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  79  54  78  52  78  47 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Pullman        75  52  75  51  78  47 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       84  60  86  58  88  55 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       80  48  81  48  80  42 /  30  30  10   0  20   0
Sandpoint      77  52  75  51  75  45 /  20  30  10   0  10  10
Kellogg        78  56  73  55  74  49 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     86  55  88  54  86  48 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      83  58  84  58  80  52 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           85  54  88  53  84  48 /  30  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$