Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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557 FXUS64 KOUN 171125 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 625 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 With moist lower atmosphere, moist ground, and light wind, areas of fog are expected this morning across northern/central/southeast Oklahoma, possibly into portions of western north Texas. Limiting factor for any dense fog will be amount of low level cloud cover development between now and daybreak. This is expected to be delayed across southeast and far northern portions of Oklahoma, so dense fog will be possible in those areas and we will monitor for any needed advisories. Fog will be possible again tonight, mainly across southeast portions of Oklahoma. Positively tilted upper trough will make slow eastward progress over the region today and tonight and should result in redevelopment of scattered showers with a few non-severe thunderstorms. With the deep layer flow quite weak, any storms that develop will be slow moving and could result in minor flooding. Most if not all of the rain activity today should be confined to areas east of the upper trough axis, generally east of a line from Quanah/Altus, to OKC and Stillwater. Rain chances will decrease from west to east late this afternoon and evening. With cloud cover expected for a good portion of the day across the southeast half of Oklahoma, most highs are expected to stay in the 70s. Highs in the 80s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 A very warm and muggy weekend still expected across most of the region, with what many would consider hot across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Thanks to potential dryline intrusions across far western Oklahoma and western north Texas, highs in the upper 90s appear possible Sunday and especially Monday, before more seasonable temperatures return by mid week. As a long wave trough begins to approach the Great Basin and northern Plains Sunday, a complex of storms is expected across Kansas. There is a chance that the southern extent of this complex could move into north central Oklahoma late Sunday/early Monday. The southern extent of this convection will be limited by developing EML/strong cap. Despite this cap, an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out near the previously mentioned dryline over far western Oklahoma late Sunday afternoon and early evening given the anticipated hot temperatures, available moisture, and low amplitude wave ejecting downstream of the larger trough. If a storm can develop and mature, it would likely be severe. As this trough amplifies and merges with a southern stream trough Tuesday/Wednesday, thunderstorm chances will increase across the region Tuesday through Thursday. While there will be a strong cap in place initially, a frontal intrusion and substantial height falls will keep chances for storms going in the forecast. Best chances for scattered rain/storms (30-40% probabilities for now) will areas near and east of I-35 where moisture will be deeper and cap weaker. During this timeframe, given amount of shear and instability, severe storms should be anticipated. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 A combination of fog and low stratus is leading to MVFR/IFR cigs/vis across east-central into southeastern Oklahoma this morning. This is expected to continue through ~9-10 AM, with brief interludes of LIFR conditions remaining possible at KDUA (as has been seen with recent observations). Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions are expected to return by the mid-morning and continue through the remainder of the TAF period. Widely scattered (diurnal) showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are expected by early this afternoon, particularly across central into eastern Oklahoma. Brief periods of lowered category are possible should direct impact be felt, though coverage and spatial extent make predictability low at this time. Safe travels! Ungar && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 79 60 87 65 / 30 0 0 0 Hobart OK 82 59 91 66 / 20 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 81 61 90 67 / 30 10 0 0 Gage OK 84 58 93 63 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 81 59 87 63 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 80 61 87 65 / 40 20 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...34