311
FXUS64 KOUN 161127
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
627 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A complicated and very-high-uncertainty forecast is expected over
the next 24 hours. The bottom line: the overall risk for severe
weather/flooding after daybreak looks to be a little bit lower than
it did earlier. "Lower" risk does not mean zero risk, so interests
should remain aware of the forecast, but hopefully we won`t have too
much to deal with.

As of the time of this writing (late Wednesday evening/early Friday
morning), we are in a relative lull between rounds of storms. Some
lingering convection is noted across north central Oklahoma, while
regional radar shows the next round getting underway across West
Texas. Real-time HRRR analysis shows a reservoir of about 1,500 J/kg
of elevated CAPE largely rooted above 700 mb, but most of it is in a
long, "skinny" CAPE profile. The potential for damaging winds will
exist, as well as the risk for severe hail. With time, this threat
may transition to hydro closer to the Red River.

And with that... we may not see a whole lot of redevelopment this
afternoon. Recent CAM guidance has indicated a potential warm-sector-
sweeping MCS this morning across central Texas, and the boundary
will certainly be accelerated further by that occurrence. The
likeliest spot for storm redevelopment this afternoon may actually
end up being northern Oklahoma further from the MCS`s subsidence and
where temperatures may be cooler aloft. Little in the way of severe
threat is expected. The greatest severe threat will be from morning
through early afternoon in western north Texas as the
MCS/redevelopment attempts to sneak back into the area, but this
seems unlikely.

We will probably see some lingering showers overnight with a cutoff
low hanging out over the upper Red River Valley. Otherwise, today
and tonight will remain on the cool and cloudy side of things.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The cutoff low will remain overhead during the day on Friday, but
will get sheared out over the course of the day. Low precipitation
chances exist but no impacts are expected. Otherwise, prepare for
another day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and another night
with lows near 60.

The pattern finally changes a bit over the weekend, as ridging
builds in on Saturday. Highs will soar into the upper 80s to low
90s, and with the amount of rain we`ve seen in recent weeks expect
this to be a steamy heat. Some midlevel flow returns on Sunday, but
the jet looks to be displaced to our north across Kansas. Therefore,
temperatures should remain on the warmer end. Sufficient flow and
moisture may exist for storm chances on Sunday (EPS ensemble
probabilities of precip are in the 30-40 percent range out west).
The better chance will probably be across northern Oklahoma on
Monday. Beyond that, there is a signal for the jet to come back
across our area and intersect with some instability through the
middle of the week, but predictability is too low at this range to
speculate on the nature of any chances for active weather.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Several aviation concerns will occur over the next 24 hours. To
begin with, storms are ongoing across parts of central Oklahoma
and western north Texas. These will have the risk of lightning,
reduced visibility, and reduced ceilings. Later today, MVFR
ceilings and another possible round of storms will occur across
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Late tonight, we will
have to watch for the potential for fog to develop with calm winds
and very high moisture content. Even without fog, southern and
central parts of our area should see ceilings drop into the
MVFR/IFR range.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  61  76  61 /  70  50  40  10
Hobart OK         76  59  79  59 /  80  50  30   0
Wichita Falls TX  75  62  78  62 /  70  60  30  10
Gage OK           75  54  81  57 /  30  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     77  60  78  59 /  60  40  30   0
Durant OK         80  63  80  62 /  50  70  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...04