Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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526 FXUS64 KOUN 040347 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1047 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 912 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 POPS over central and southeastern Oklahoma have been increased from late this evening into mid-morning Tuesday. There is some persistence in signals for scattered thunderstorms to develop in a warm-advection regime across parts of central Oklahoma around midnight. Some of these could produce large hail and strong wind gusts. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Storm potential this evening will transition from southwest Oklahoma/western north Texas to the northeast, as several members of the 12Z HREF depict thunderstorm development in central Oklahoma between sunset and midnight. This appears to be triggered by an elevated warm front along the leading edge of the LLJ, as MUCAPE rises to near 4,000 J/kg late in the evening. Bulk shear will be sufficient for the development of likely elevated supercells initially, which will pose a threat for large to very large hail near the OKC metro. Thereafter, the continued strengthening of the low-level jet will likely induce further convection initiation and the development of an MCS, which guidance shows moving south- southeast into south central Oklahoma with more of a risk for damaging wind gusts. All of this remains lower-confidence, but sufficient signal and meteorological reasoning exists for us to keep a close watch on this potential round of storms. One thing you learn in this area and in this time of year is to never say "Tomorrow will be dry". But... at least for now, there is an indication of weakening of deep-layer flow and potentially no obvious boundaries to initiate convection tomorrow afternoon. Most guidance indicates a rather warm-to-hot day with highs in the low 90s to low 100s. There`s some reason to be doubtful given the widespread rain today, but this would just turn the day more humid rather than more pleasant. A breath of northwest flow returns into our area tomorrow night, so another MCS will likely occur sometime overnight mostly north of I- 40. We`ll get those details locked down as uncertainty gets reduced. Meister && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 This is an especially difficult long-term AFD to write, because, well... it`s especially difficult to figure out what`s going to happen beginning on Wednesday. A powerful mid-latitude jet will eject into the northern Plains during the day on Wednesday, which will be the primary driver of this uncertainty. It will create a northeast-to-southwest dipole, with an unseasonably strong (594 dam) ridge across the Staked Plains and an unseasonably strong (549 dam) trough across the Upper Great Lakes. Between that, we`ll find ourselves right on the northeastern fringe of the ridge. This could play out in a couple of different ways - either we could end up with just enough northwest flow to keep nightly MCSs moving into our area, especially the northeast portion, or we could end up hot and dry. We could end up both - June 2023 in Wichita Falls was hot and dry even while OKC and points north were repeatedly receiving heavy rainfall and cooler temperatures. Right now, I`d lean towards using the experience from 2023 and the last few weeks here in 2024 where chances for storms have largely overperformed model guidance rather than vice versa. This might signal a somewhat more active and cooler than normal end to the week and weekend, especially further north and east in our area. Meister && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Thunderstorms are expected through daybreak across central and southeastern Oklahoma. MVFR ceilings are generally expected tonight and Tuesday morning before lifting during the afternoon. South to southeast winds will be common before a weak cold front shifts them to north at KWWR around 18Z and passes through central Oklahoma after sunset. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 69 90 69 90 / 40 20 40 0 Hobart OK 68 96 69 94 / 20 0 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 71 97 71 92 / 20 10 20 0 Gage OK 66 91 64 95 / 10 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 66 86 66 90 / 40 10 50 0 Durant OK 70 90 72 88 / 50 30 40 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ023>031-033>042- 044>047. TX...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...09