184
FXUS62 KRAH 010650
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure across the area will move offshore
late today and tonight. The high pressure will move out
into the western Atlantic by Monday, bringing warmer
and more humid air, along with mainly diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms across the area through mid week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Saturday...

Overview: Canadian high pressure centered over the area this morning
will slide east and offshore during the afternoon. Aloft, amplified
ridging will quickly pace eastward across the area today as a
dampening mid-level shortwave trough over the MS Valley progresses
eastward into the Ohio and Tn Valleys.

Today: While the cP airmass in place will begin to moderate under
the influence of light southerly return flow, temperatures will
remain slightly below normal for the 1st day of meteorological
summer. Underneath thickening cirrus, Highs 80 to 85 with
dewpoints/humidity still quite comfortable for this time of year.

Tonight: Upper ridge axis will move offshore during the evening.
Modest moisture transport associated with the shortwave trough
moving east into the Appalachians will spread east into the western
portions of the state. The increasing moisture coupled with lift
from preceding MCVs/convectively-generated vorticity axis could lead
to some spotty light rain over the western Piedmont towards
daybreak. Elsewhere, it should remain dry with multi-layered
cloudiness developing across the area. Not as cool. Lows 55 to 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Saturday...

The aforementioned mid-level shortwave trough will continue to
dampen/weaken as it moves east through the southern and mid-Atlantic
states through the period. At the surface, a weak low pressure
trough develops along the lee of the mountains. Weak and difficult
to resolve perturbations may prove to be the primary drivers for
lift and associated isolated to widely scattered weak convection
Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night. Daytime heating within the
seasonably moist airmass should lead to weak buoyancy, mainly across
the NW Piedmont, which is where the highest PoPs will be retained
Sunday afternoon/evening. Then overnight, while the deepest moisture
gradually shift eastward towards eastern/coastal NC, model guidance
suggests an isolated/pop up shower is possible just about anywhere.

Highs ranging from upper 70s/near 80 NW to mid 80s SE. Lows in the
lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 231 PM Friday...

A series of short wave troughs are forecast by models to move across
our region through much of the period.  Meanwhile at the surface,
high pressure will be centered to our east offshore of Cape Fear at
the start of the period and will generally remain to our east during
the period, with sw low level flow persisting over the Carolinas and
promoting gradual WAA and increasing PWAT through the week.   The
Piedmont trough will develop each day, with the next substantial sfc
front approaching and moving through late Thursday when a deeper
upper trough begins to develop over the Great Lakes region.

The sensible weather as a result of the above pattern will feature
gradually increasing temps and humidity each day as sw low level
flow persists.  Sunday will be the last of the near-normal temp days
for the period, with highs in the mid 80s, but then highs a few deg
either side of 90 will be possible each day the rest of the week.
Most of our CWA should remain dry on Sunday, with the exception of
our western Piedmont zones where a few isold showers/tstms are
possible.   Then for the remainder of the week, well have mainly
diurnal aoa-climo PoPs Monday through Wednesday, then the highest
PoPs late Thursday in response to the approaching front.  The front
should be to our east by Friday morning, with dry weather for the
rest of Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 AM Saturday...

There is high confidence in VFR conditions through the period.
Cirrus will thicken up and will become BKN by the late afternoon and
evening. Light and variable winds overnight will become southerly 5-
10 mph later today.


Outlook: Southerly moisture advection associated with a shortwave
trough moving into the region will lead to a chance of showers
Sunday into Sunday night and associated sub-VFR restrictions, mainly
at KINT and KGSO. Mainly diurnal showers/storms could result in
brief periods of sub-VFR restrictions Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...CBL