Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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749 FXUS62 KRAH 110626 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 225 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley today will slowly shift into the mid-Atlantic and persist through much of the work week. A cold front will approach the region this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 1010 PM Monday... A mid/upper level trough with a couple embedded shortwaves will progress across the Mid-Atlantic through daybreak. The lead shortwave is currently moving through north-central VA and supporting the maintenance of showers and storms through northern VA. Closer to home near the VA/NC border, altocumulus have become more widespread and isolated shower development near the Danville area are supported by cooler 500mb temperatures and up to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE. Farther south into the Piedmont of NC, 500mb temps are considerably warmer within the subsidence inversion present which is limiting the available instability. Isolated showers may be possible near the VA/NC border into the northern Coastal Plain for the next few hours as the shortwave swings through. A second compact shortwave diving south through Ohio Valley will then pivot across NC overnight into early Tues morning. This second wave combined with weak instability and meager H5 height falls may provide enough support for isolated sprinkles, but measurable rain will be difficult to achieve. Lows tonight will dip into low/mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Monday... A generally quiet day under light northerly flow, with high pressure moving in from the NW and weak low/troughing along the NC coast. A mid level shortwave trough will cross the state Tue, and while PW will be rather low over much of the state, far NE NC will be within better low level moisture with weak mass convergence just N of a low center over the central coast/sounds. As the shortwave trough kicks this low a bit offshore, a portion of the surface high will dip into NE NC along a subtle backdoor front feature, enhancing convergence over NE NC. Our extreme NE sections will be close enough to this low level forcing for ascent to justify an isolated shallow shower risk, and will include a few hours of slight chance pops for showers in our extreme NE late Tue. (Lack of both moisture and steep lapse rates aloft, within the mixed phase region, should limit the thunder risk in our area, but will monitor this potential.) Otherwise, expect partly to mostly sunny skies, followed by a fair night with a some high clouds moving in late. Highs will be close to normals, from the lower to upper 80s, with slightly cooler than normal lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s. -GIH && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Monday... The extended starts off quiet with slightly above normal temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday. Dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s will make outside feel comfy in the morning but still tolerable in the afternoon Wednesday. As an upper level ridge moves across the OH valley and over the northern Mid-Atlantic region mid week dry weather is expected across our area Wednesday through at least Friday. Although Friday is expected to be dry across most of the area a cold front will begin to move in from the OH valley late Friday night and linger across the region Saturday and Sunday. Although the initial pass of the front is expected to be dry, it will get hung up along the eastern portions of NC and increase the PoPs for the afternoon and early evening Saturday and Sunday. For now have best chance for precip in the over the SW portion of the CWA Saturday afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty remains high for Mondays forecast as the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico increases chance for storms across the Deep South and southern Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures during the long term are excepted to be above normal. Wednesday and Thursday the NW portion of the region is expected to be in the 80s while else where will creep into the low 90s. Friday is expected to be the warmest with highs in the low to mid 90s across the region and apparent temperatures in the upper 90s. Saturday high temps will be similar to Friday but timing of the afternoon storms and coverage could result in a slight trend upward or downward in the temps. Sunday and Monday temperatures fall slightly with the frontal passage and highs are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 AM Monday... High confidence of VFR conditions across most of central NC for the 24 hour TAF period. An upper level disturbance will move east across the Carolinas and VA this morning producing some scattered low and mid cloudiness this morning. Some isolated fog is possible across southern locations through around daybreak but coverage is expected to be very limited. Additional cloudiness and some scattered convection is expected across coastal areas that may be close but should stay east of the KRWI terminal. Otherwise, dry weather with areas of VFR fair weather cumulus clouds with bases of 6-8kft are expected to develop today along with periods of high cirrus clouds today and tonight. Very light winds early this morning will turn to mainly northerly at 4 to 8 kts today. Outlook: generally fair weather is expected for most of the work week with the potential for some late night/daybreak fog and stratus. There is a small chance of a mainly afternoon and evening shower or storm, especially across the east and southeast on Friday and Saturday. -Blaes && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...Swiggett SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Blaes