496
FXUS62 KRAH 101750
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
150 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure currently over the northern Plains will slide
southeast through the week, keeping dry weather across the region.
Hot temperatures will return to the area by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Monday...

With the front that moved through the area in the last 24 hours,
moisture values through the atmospheric column have dramatically
dropped - the Sunday evening radiosonde in Greensboro had a
precipitable water value of 1.8" while the Monday morning radiosonde
only measured 0.72". Although there are some diurnal cumulus clouds
around this afternoon, skies should be mostly clear overnight,
except for some passing clouds with an upper level shortwave. Cannot
completely rule out the chance for a shower across southern Sampson
County this evening as higher moisture remains closer to the
coastline. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Monday...

Another day of cooler temperatures and lower relative humidities.

Weak low pressure will be exiting the mid-Atlantic coast with high
pressure building in from the Midwest Tuesday morning. CAA during
the day will lead to a day with slightly below normal temperatures.
Expect highs in the lower to mid 80s with partly sunny skies. Dew
points and relative humidity values will remain lower than normal,
as well. This will continue the trend of comfortable conditions for
at least this one more day. Lows Tuesday night are expected to be in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 AM Monday...

The extended forecast continues to trend drier, along with hot and
humid conditions for the late week period into at least the first
half of the weekend. The best chance of showers or storms may not be
until the weekend, and even then, chances are low/uncertain.

Wednesday we will see high pressure over the area that will shift
offshore later in the day and largely remain out over the western
Atlantic into at least Sat. Aloft, WNW flow will be in place,
followed by ridging over the central/southern Plains shifting east
into the region by the latter part of the weekend. Somewhat still
comfortable weather Wed in the mid/upper 80s will transition to more
hot and humid weather to close out the week and start Sat with low
to mid 90s as low-level thicknesses rise some 30 m above average.
The NW flow could favor some convective complexes over the Great
Lakes Thu/Fri that could impact the lower OH valley, but with
ridging over us we appear sheltered from this activity. There could
be some diurnal showers/storms late in the week tied to the sea-
breeze or lee surface trough over the Piedmont, but there is not
much deep forcing in the guidance to warrant more than slight
chances at the moment given ridging in place.

Over the weekend, models are in decent agreement that a cold front
could approach late Sat and perhaps linger over the area or move
through Sun. This period would appear our best chance of some
storms, but even then, the front could pass through dry as most of
the mid-level energy remains to our north. For now, have low end
chances for Sat and Sun. The uncertainty with the front Sun limits
confidence on highs, but for now we trended a little lower than Sat
with upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM Monday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24
hours. Although there are some diurnal cumulus clouds around, much
drier air behind a front should minimize the moisture for any
ceiling/visibility restrictions. Winds should remain around 5 kt
from the northwest.

Outlook: There are no restrictions through the outlook period, with
the next (slight) chance for precipitation coming on Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Green