577
FXUS62 KRAH 100529
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
128 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move southeast through the area late today. High
pressure will build in from the northwest and north Tuesday through
Wednesday, then move off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday night and
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 PM Sunday...

A broken line of pre-frontal showers and a few isolated storms (in
the southern Piedmont) continue to advance ese across central NC
this evening. Outflow associated with this line continues to produce
brief gusts of up to 30 mph (Sanford-Lee County airport (KTTA)
recently observed a 36 mph gust).  While the  strongest instability
is largely shunted to our south, outflow associated with these
showers/isolated storms will continue to generate brief gusts of up
to 30 mph through the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain the next few
hours. This band of precipitation should push east of our area in
early overnight period. However, guidance continues to suggest at
least a chance for some re-development of showers across our far
southern zones near daybreak tomorrow. Otherwise, expect overnight
lows in the lower 60s to around 70 (south).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

...Lingering rain chances across southern NC through early Monday...


The effective, lead cold front is forecast to be well south of the
area by daybreak. However, weak perturbations embedded within the
plume of deeper moist and weak instability lingering across the far
southern zones could support another round/area of post-frontal
convection between 12 to 16z.

Additionally, a shortwave trough pivoting SEwd through the base of
the long wave trough will lead to the development of a secondary
cold front Monday afternoon that will move south across the area
during the evening. Probabilistic guidance indicates non-zero
chances for some isolated showers and with this feature. Otherwise,
it should be drying out by the afternoon and not as hot. Highs
ranging from lower 80s north to mid/upper 80s south.

The secondary frontal passage Monday evening will usher in even
cooler and less humid into the area as continental surface high
builds in from the northwest. Lows ranging from mid/upper 50s north
to 60-65 elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

The extended starts off quiet and comfortable with slightly below
normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s Tuesday. Dewpoints in the
50s to low 60s will make outside feel comfy in the mornings but
still tolerable in the afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday. As an upper
level ridge moves across the OH valley and over the northern Mid-
Atlantic region early to mid week dry weather is expected across our
area Tuesday through at least Friday morning. By late week an
abundance of moisture will move in from the Gulf of Mexico/Florida
resulting in some chance of showers and storms in the afternoon each
day Fri-Sun. For now have diurnal afternoon PoPs focused over the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain regions but can expect PoPs to expand
west with time and more consistent model guidance. Highs
temperatures will remain above average and gradually increase each
day. Thursday through the weekend temps will range from low 90s NW
to mid 90s SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 128 AM Monday...

VFR conditions will dominate late tonight through Mon, although an
isolated shower can`t be ruled out very late Mon as a second front
approaches the area. Surface winds will remain gusty into tonight,
from the WSW or W shifting to NW after frontal passage.

Looking beyond 00z Tue, with surface high pressure extending over
the area, VFR conditions are likely to persist through the remainder
of the week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Badgett