Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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674 FXUS62 KRAH 090059 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 854 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will remain over the area through tonight, then move offshore on Sunday. An upper level disturbance and approaching cold front will cross the region late Sunday and Sunday night. This front will then stall out just to our southeast starting Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 854 PM Saturday... Negligible changes were made this evening as the inherited forecast is on track. High clouds from upstream convection earlier today continue to advect east across the Piedmont this evening. Expect periods of cloudiness to continue overnight with warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. Residual dry air and lingering sfc high pressure will promote dry conditions overnight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 209 PM Saturday... ...Marginal Risk of severe storms across central/southern NC on Sunday... A slow moving upper low over the Great Lakes will move into eastern Canada during the day Sunday. A shortwave will round the base of the trough, cross the mountains, and arrive in central NC some time mid/late afternoon on Sunday. Ahead of the attendant surface cold front, temps will rise well into the low to mid 90s but more noticeably, moisture will return to the area as the aforementioned surface ridge shifts offshore and return flow sets up. PW`s will climb from around 1.0 inches today to nearly 1.75+ inches tomorrow afternoon. While there will be some remnant cloud cover across the area tomorrow from upstream convection, it still appears that there will be sufficient time and breaks in the clouds to support MLCAPEs in the 500-1000 J/KG range immediately ahead of the surface front as it moves through the area. Deep layer shear isn`t the most impressive but 0-6km values should reach 30-40 kt so there should be some amount of organization to whatever storms form along and ahead of the front. Primary threat with any storms that develop tomorrow will be in the form of damaging winds. As the front moves through the area, precip chances should taper off from northwest to southeast through the evening/overnight hours, eventually drying out completely by daybreak. Lows tomorrow night will range from the low 60s in the north to the upper 60s in the south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 PM Saturday... Monday through Wednesday: Aloft, as the amplifying upper trough swings eastward through the East Coast Mon and Tue, a pair of s/w disturbances will move through the base of the trough over central NC. The second s/w will be more potent, however with limited moisture to work with, chances for any showers with it are low. As the trough moves offshore Wed, weak, transient ridging will move through the area ahead of the next disturbance(s). At the surface, a weak area of low pressure may trail behind the cold front and linger over central NC on Monday, then shift eastward offshore as a reinforcing cold front pushes through the area Mon night/Tue. The low should sit offshore through Tue as the surface high builds eastward from the OH Valley to the northern mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. As the high shifts offshore Wed, it should finally push the low away from the coast. Expect a warm front to lift toward/into the area Wed night. Best chances for a shower or storm should be confined to the southern and eastern portions of central NC Mon night and Tue aft, coincident with the s/w passages aloft and somewhat favorable diurnal timing. Otherwise, the forecast remains dry through Wed. Temperatures should be near to slightly below normal for Mon and Tue, increasing back to slightly above normal by Wed. Thursday onward: Model solutions begin to diverge for the latter half of the week. Aloft, a disturbance over the lower MS Valley/Deep South could deepen if/as it moves over the Gulf Thu/Fri and meets up with a northward lifting disturbance over the eastern Gulf. There is disagreement wrt what happens to the low(s) Fri night/Sat, either lingering over the Gulf or lifting newd through FL to off the Southeast US coast. Meanwhile to the north, a northern stream s/w will track eastward through southeast Canada Wed/Thu as a secondary low follows behind it Thu/Fri. If these lows merge over Hudson Bay, the attendant trough could amplify southward through the mid- Atlantic Fri/Sat. There could be some interaction between the northern stream trough and the disturbance over the Gulf/Southeast, but for now there is too much uncertainty to say for sure how it will play out. Chances for showers/storms will depend on this interaction, so will err toward climatology until there is better agreement one way or the other. Temperatures should remain above normal Thu through Sat. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 715 PM Saturday... Confidence remains high that all central NC terminal forecast sites will remain VFR through at least Sun morning, as high pressure which is sitting over the region pushes slowly east and offshore. A passing upper level disturbance will bring a batch of mid clouds based at 8-12 thsd ft over the area through tonight, but otherwise just high thin clouds are expected. Late in the TAF valid period, scattered showers and storms are expected, mainly after 19z, with another round of mid clouds and scattered to broken VFR cumulus. FAY is the location most likely to be impacted, with a lesser threat at other sites where storms will be more isolated. Winds will be fairly light but frequent gusts around 20 kts are likely Sun 14z-22z, and stronger gusts are possible in and near any storms late Sun. Looking beyond 00z Mon, the threat of a few storms will persist mainly at FAY until around 07z Mon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are likely to hold at all sites through Thu, with low chances for showers and storms. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Luchetti SHORT TERM...Leins LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...Hartfield