Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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097 FXUS65 KRIW 290916 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 316 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A weather system brings more widespread rain shower and thunderstorm chances to the area today. It will also be breezy across the area. - The end of the week looks dry and a bit cooler after the system passes on Wednesday. Then, slight chances for thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. - Monday looks hot and dry once again before another shortwave clips the area on Tuesday, with more rain shower/thunderstorm chances. - Long-range model guidance continues to indicate a hot and dry period beginning late next week as a dominant ridge sets up over the western US. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024 A more meaningful shortwave will pass through today, with more widespread rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. The SPC has upgraded northern portions of the State to a Marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon. The only threats are strong to damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning, but small hail is possible (40%) as well. This shortwave will bring breezy conditions today. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler across northwestern portions of the area due to increased cloud cover and rain, elsewhere temperatures will be similar to Tuesday. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon due to the breezy wind, low RH, and warm temperatures. After this system moves through it will be warm and mostly dry through Friday. Another slight chance (20-30%) of rain showers/thunderstorms this weekend as another quick moving shortwave will slide through the Cowboy State. Minor river flooding is possible (30-40%) through tonight due to mountain snowmelt as temperatures remain warm today, but as it stands right now all rivers are behaving. Overall, it will be an unsettled weather pattern with shortwaves in mostly zonal flow through this weekend into next week. The shortwaves will all be quick moving and weak, so not expecting big precip makers or highly impactful weather into next week. It will be fairly breezy for most locations beginning today and continuing into next week. The breezy conditions, combined with low RH will lead to elevated fire weather conditions later this week through this weekend, although greenup will limit this threat. The amplified ridge that model guidance was indicating for next week now looks like it will develop a bit later as another trough slides through on Tuesday. Regardless of the active pattern temperatures will not drop all that much as each trough/shortwave should stay north as they pass through the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1010 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the first half of the TAF period. Clouds will begin to increase over northwestern portions after 12Z, as a cold front approaches the area. Showers will be confined to this area through 18Z as well. Winds will increase at all terminals after 18Z, as the cold front makes its way over the area, resulting in gusts of 25 to 30 kt through the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread through the afternoon, as the cold front progresses eastward. Most, if not all, terminals have a chance to be directly impacted, with KCOD and KWRL having the best chances. The wind will be the main impact, but IFR visibilities/MVFR ceilings and higher wind gusts could occur if a thunderstorm moves directly over a terminal. Showers and thunderstorms will become more confined over northern portions of the forecast area after 00Z, becoming more isolated through 06Z. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rowe AVIATION...LaVoie