Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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252 FXUS61 KRNK 020655 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 255 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system in the Mid Mississippi Valley will track east today bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. Daily showers and thunderstorms continue for the region through Thursday, before drier weather returns for the end of the week. After Sunday, temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for much of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: 1) Showers and thunderstorms possible today. High pressure still remains over the Atlantic with subtle troughing across the Ohio Valley. Southwest flow across the region has resulted in increasing moisture. Showers becoming a little more widespread across the mountains this morning and these will continue through sunrise. Showers may wane a bit through late morning and early afternoon, allowing for some breaks in the clouds. Although heating will not be particularly strong, will likely still have modest instability by the afternoon resulting in scattered thunderstorms mainly across the mountains. Should lose coverage and intensity of storms after sunset to just some remaining scattered showers again tonight. With expected cloud cover, highs today mainly in the low/mid 70s for the mountains and upper 70s in the east. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for chances of showers and thunderstorms each day in this forecast period. 2) Stronger thunderstorms will be possible during Wednesday as a cold front approaches. A stalled frontal boundary will linger across North Carolina on Monday, while weak high pressure passes to the north across eastern Canada. The close proximity of this stalled boundary combined with daytime heating and moisture should spark scattered showers and thunderstorms by Monday afternoon. Little change in the overall atmospheric pattern is expected for Monday night into Tuesday as the weak area of high pressure heads off the East Coast. More showers and thunderstorms could develop on Tuesday afternoon as the frontal boundary gets nudged northward as a warm front due to an approaching cold front in the central Plains. The flow will turn more southerly by Wednesday as the cold front draws closer from the west. With increasing synoptic lift and moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico, more organized thunderstorms seem possible during Wednesday afternoon and evening. Even the model soundings hint at some reasonable instability available during this time. Coverage of the showers and thunderstorms will likely become more widespread as well. The convection should continue into Wednesday night as the cold front reaches the Appalachian Mountains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is moderate for more showers and thunderstorms on Thursday as a cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic. 2) An upper level low will pass north of the Appalachian Mountains to keep showers lingering into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could continue into Thursday as a cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic, but there are some subtle model differences regarding the timing of the frontal passage that may impact how much convection will occur. A deep upper level low trailing behind the cold front should wobble eastward across eastern Canada during Friday and Saturday. Bands of showers with maybe a rumble of thunder due to the increasing lapse rates aloft will pass across the Appalachian Mountains sometime during these two days. Saturday appears more favorable for this activity due to drier air arriving on Friday after the frontal passage. Temperatures should dip a little lower to end the week from the presence of the upper level low to the north. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 AM EDT Sunday... Widespread VFR conditions this morning and VFR should continue through much of the day. A few light showers expected across the mountains this morning. Should have some clearing in clouds a bit later this morning into the early afternoon. Afternoon storms possible across the mountains and have added VCTS for a few hours this afternoon/evening for mountain terminals. Slightly lower cigs tonight, but still on low end VFR. May have some valley fog formation, particularly at LWB, late tonight as well resulting in some vsby restrictions. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mostly VFR, but ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA could result in periodic restrictions through the period. Some BR is also possible, especially in valley locations through Tuesday. Greater likelihood of restrictions/MVFR (or lower) flight categories due to SHRA/TSRA by mid-week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...BMG