980
FXUS61 KRNK 111645
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weather through the work week,
bringing dry weather to the region. Temperatures trend warmer
with upper 80s and 90s possible for highs beginning Thursday.
The next chance of rain may occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Dry weather continues into Wednesday.

Upper trough begins to shift offshore this afternoon, but
northwest flow will persist behind the trough through tomorrow.
This will keep drier and cooler air filtering into the region.

Upslope stratus has continued most of the day, but will
gradually erode through the overnight hours. Light breeze this
afternoon will go calm overnight and partly clear skies with
high pressure settling overhead will promote lows in the 50s
with some upper 40s across the mountains.

Slightly warmer tomorrow, and still dry with high pressure in
control. Northwest flow transitions to a slightly more westerly
flow with heights slowly building. Upper 70s in the mountains
and low/mid 80s in the lower elevations.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Warmer than normal temperatures starting Thursday.
3. Mostly a dry forecast.

High pressure will reign supreme through the period. There is a
low chance for some orographic showers to develop along the
eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge of the NW NC mountains late
Thursday afternoon. Any showers will fade around sunset.

Abundant sunshine and increasing heights aloft will bring near
normal temperatures to the area Wednesday, then warmer than
normal Thursday. Thursday`s highs will range in the mid to upper
80s west of the Blue Ridge to the lower 90s east. These
temperatures are 10F warmer than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1145 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Summer Pattern Setting Up.

2) Fairly Dry But Afternoon/Evening Chances By Early Next Week For
Storms.

5h pattern this weekend shows a building ridge from the lower MS
Valley into the southeast and mid-Atlantic. Models seem in agreement
on this, but differ on extent of heat that occurs. At the surface
high pressure builds across the northeast and mid-Atlantic Sunday
and with a northeast to east flow will alleviate the heat somewhat.
Temperatures should run close to or just above normal this weekend.

Once the high shifts offshore early next week, models advertise
increasing moisture with a front tracking north of us Monday. There
are some model differences on 5h and 8h heights/temps, but starting
to look like early next week will be more humid with temperatures
running 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Storm chances start increasing as well but will keep it capped
at 30-40 percent mainly across the mountains, with less chance
east.

Forecast confidence is high on temperatures increasing next week but
moderate on chance of storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Tuesday...

Mostly VFR scattered cloud cover continues this afternoon.
Should see clouds gradually erode through the evening. Light
WNW winds will decrease to calm overnight. Winds tomorrow will
be light and variable with high pressure overhead.

Tonight MVFR or lower patchy fog is possible in the river and
mountain valleys, especially at LWB.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR anticipated through the upcoming week. Mainly dry conditions
expected through Saturday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...BMG