784
FXUS63 KSGF 111849
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
149 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Warm-up starts on Wednesday with temperatures reaching the
   90s by Thursday into early next week. Heat index values
   generally in the mid 90s to around 103.

-  Low end thunderstorm chances on Thursday night(15-30%) as a
   front sags south into the area.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Another chamber of
commerce day across the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast
Kansas. Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show an
upper level shortwave tracking across the upper Mississippi
valley region with another shortwave entering the west coast of
British Columbia. At the surface, high pressure has shifted east
of the area and we are seeing a return to a light southerly
wind. A cold front was pushing east across the upper Mississippi
valley region, but will not reach this far south. Temperatures
were in the mid 70s to low 80s with dew points in the mid to
upper 50s across the area with some scattered fair weather
cumulus over the eastern half of the CWA.

Tonight: The upper shortwave and surface front will continue to
slide east into the Great Lakes region. Light southerly flow
will continue in the low levels here with a northwest flow
aloft. The main storm track has shifted well north of the area
to around the U.S. Canadian border. Lows tonight will be in the
50s in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the west.

Wednesday: The flow aloft will become more westerly and
southerly winds will begin to increase slightly. Some low level
warm advection will take place with temperatures warming back
into the mid to upper 80s.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Thursday: Another upper level shortwave and speed max will track
across the upper Mississippi valley region while an upper level
ridge axis begins to amplify over the Rockies. Enough of a dip
in the upper trough will bring some northwesterly flow east of
the ridge into the area and may track this next front a bit
further south. The front should stay north of the area during
the day with CAPE values increasing into the 2500-3500 j/kg
ahead of the front in central MO by late in the day. Highs
during the day will be in the upper 80s to low 90s and with
moisture increasing ahead of the front, we could see heat index
values in the mid 90s to around 101.

Thursday night: As this front slides south on Thursday night, we
may see some scattered convection in central MO with the front,
with a marginal risk of severe storms with hail to the size of
quarters and 60 mph winds the main risks. It looks like the main
risk will remain up in central MO with little to no development
expected further south.

Friday through Monday: Upper ridge axis begins to shift
northeast into the area with a very large thermal cap in place
from around 850mb to 700 mb. 850mb temperatures will be in the
18-21 degree range and 700mb temperatures in the 10-13 degree
range. Despite the strong afternoon/evening instability where
CAPES will be over 3500 j/kg, the thermal cap should keep
generally dry and warm conditions over the area. NBM ensemble
temperatures are in pretty decent agreement with upper 80s to
low 90s for temperatures with heat index values in the mid 90s
to around 103. Will start messaging this in our graphical
products this afternoon.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For the 18z TAFS, high pressure remains over the area and was
shifting to the east allowing for a light southerly wind to
develop over the region. Some cumulus were developing over the
area but should remain at 4500 feet or higher during the
afternoon. Otherwise, some high cloud cover will be possible
into the evening with a clear sky developing by Wednesday
morning.  VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024


Record High Temperatures:

June 16:
KSGF: 97/1952
KJLN: 95/2016


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 15:
KSGF: 74/2022

June 16:
KSGF: 75/2022

June 17:
KSGF: 76/2016

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Camden