Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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972 FXUS63 KSGF 221952 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 252 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for a few strong to severe thunderstorms continues for late this afternoon into the early evening Primary hazards are hail to the size of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. - An additional Marginal (level 1 of 5) to Slight (level 2 of 5) risk Thursday night into Friday morning for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. - 50-70% chance for thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday will bring the potential for additional severe weather and localized flash flooding. All day washouts are not expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Synoptically, the frontal boundary responsible for yesterday`s severe weather has settled into northern Arkansas to the Missouri bootheel with an H8 front extending on the south side of I-44. Showers and some thunderstorms that formed along and west of the H8 front will move eastward across southern Missouri into this evening. MUCAPES of 500-1000 J/KG may allow a few stronger storms but widespread severe weather is not expected. Low end storm chances (20-40%) will continue into Thursday as a short wave pivots negatively over the Dakotas leading to surface cyclogenesis over the western Plains. The resultant southerly flow will advect the front over northern Arkansas northward...setting off warm advection convection aided by a subtle shortwave crossing the southern Plains. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 With the aforementioned Dakotas wave generating a cold front that will extend southward into the Plains, thunderstorms will form across the Plains advecting into the forecast area Thursday moving across the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. Although timing will preclude the benefit from solar heating, there will be plenty of instability ahead of this cold front to lead to the potential for strong to severe weather once again. Attention then will turn to the weekend as the western trough digs into the Central Plains and a broad wave rotates around the bottom of the ridge setting up diffluence induced rain chances...and yet another chance for severe weather later Saturday into Sunday. Despite all the storm systems, it should be noted that these will not result in all-day rain outs. In the wake of the weekend wave, upper flow will finally turn northwesterly bringing a respite from the extended period of storm chances. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to maximize over south central Missouri into this evening with multiple bands of clouds outside of the storms ranging from 3000-7000ft. TSRA chances will then remain largely along the Arkansas border overnight. IFR-MVFR cigs will build northward after midnight as moisture flows northward over the front to the south. These ceilings will lift northward as the front begins moving northward into Thursday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Runnels LONG TERM...Runnels AVIATION...Runnels