Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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288 FXUS63 KSGF 040536 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1236 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are ongoing across the area. Main threats are frequent lightning, quarter sized hail or smaller, wind gusts between 50-60 mph, and nuisance flooding. Storms are expected to diminish around 8pm. - Widespread 60-90% chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night. Marginal risk for severe storms with a few storms producing damaging winds and hail. Slight risk for excessive rainfall which may again lead to localized flooding. - Warm and muggy conditions through midweek. Drier conditions Wednesday through Friday. Pattern chance for the weekend may bring slightly cooler temps to the area. Low confidence in rain potential for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 This Evening: A cluster of thunderstorms is pushing northeast through south-central MO. They formed off of an outflow boundary from the MCS that is currently pushing through OK/AR. There is an axis of instability roughly along and east of HWY 65. As storms continue to follow the instability, they will continue to pulse up and become strong/marginally severe with frequent lightning, quarter sized hail or smaller, wind gusts between 50-60 mph, and nuisance flooding. There have already been a couple of flood advisories issued this afternoon as some of these storms have dropped a quick 1- 2 inches of rain. PWAT values are between 1.3-1.5 inches today, therefore, these storms will be efficient rainfall producers. They can drop a good amount of rain in a short amount of time, while also reducing visibilities. Tonight: Rain is expected to taper off around 5-8pm this evening for most of the area. Then, tonight around midnight, another round of thunderstorms will move through the area. A second MCS will form over SE KS/NE OK tonight as a mid-level shortwave moves through the area. Again, these storms are expected to be strong/marginally severe with frequent lightning, quarter sized hail or smaller, wind gusts between 50-60 mph, and nuisance flooding. The MCS is forecast to be out of the area by late Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Tuesday: Once the MCS exits the area, rain will slowly taper off. There could be some lingering showers on the backside of the MCS, as a few models are showing. Therefore, have kept 30-40% POPs through the afternoon. Though, they may need to be adjusted after assessing the speed/movement of the MCS. If the atmosphere is overworked, those POPs will need to be lowered to match the stable atmosphere. By Tuesday night, a surface cold front will move through the area and could perhaps bring yet another MCS through the area into Wednesday morning. Wednesday through Friday: The upper level trough will continue moving east into the Great Lakes region with a secondary front moving into the area. This will reinforce a slightly drier airmass as northwest flow aloft develops and sticks around through the rest of the week. Highs will be a bit cooler in the lower 80s. The Weekend: Upper level ridging returns this weekend. While the area will be susceptible to disturbances moving down the flow into the area, pinpointing these is difficult at this time. Given that ensemble clusters are not in agreement, NBM pops around 30 percent this weekend seems prudent at this juncture. This will also have an impact on temps. NBM high temp spreads are around 10 degrees however the trend/signal is for near to slightly below average range (upper 70s to around 80). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Confidence is high that at least MVFR ceilings will continue through the overnight hours lasting into a good part of Tuesday. However confidence is much lower in thunderstorm chances and have only gone with prob30 groups for now. The area that potentially has the higher thunder probs overnight are at BBG. Precip chances then return late Tuesday night towards the end of the TAF period as a front approaches. Until then southerly winds will continue. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Soria LONG TERM...Soria AVIATION...Burchfield