798
FXUS64 KSHV 010916
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
416 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday Night)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Aside from patchy fog across much of the region this morning,
weather impacts are minimal to begin the day. However, we are
monitoring an upstream MCS shifting from the TX panhandle into
NW/NCntrl TX toward the DFW metroplex. More recent runs of the
hi-res NAM and HRRR are increasingly bullish on this convection
maintaining strength and organization as it rides a shortwave
eastward throughout the day today. In keeping with these trends,
have carried mid chance PoPs across much of East TX along and
south of I-20 toward Toledo Bend country where it appears this
complex will likely track SE if it indeed does manage to hold
together through this afternoon. Lower end rain chances extend
into much of Northern LA to account for any slight deviations
along with potential outflow boundaries generated downstream of
this convection by mid to late afternoon.

As for temperatures today, increasing cirrus from the upstream
convection may very well temper highs for this afternoon so it`s
possible that the forecast of upper 80s to near 90 degrees may be
just a bit too warm. However, due to afternoon timing of possible
convection impacting southern parts of the region, we will have
several hours of warming to approach seasonal average temps. It
is worth noting that although severe weather is a low-end threat
today, the extent of warming ahead of any possible thunderstorms
later this afternoon may result in some isolated damaging winds,
which is reflected by a Marginal Risk in SPC`s Day 1 convective
outlook for areas generally along and south of the I-20 corridor.
Some of this convection may linger into the evening hours, mainly
from Toledo Bend and points eastward in Northern and Central LA.
Overnight temperatures will cool back into the mid and upper 60s
to lower 70s.

Moving ahead to Sunday, NW flow aloft will persist and maintain at
least some chance for additional scattered convection given the
subtle perturbations embedded in the pattern along with the very
warm and moist LL flow across our region. So expect a warm and
humid day on Sunday with high temperatures near 90 degrees with
better rain chances coming during the hours of afternoon peak
heating before gradually diminishing by Sunday evening/night.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

As we move ahead to next week, upper-level ridging across Mexico
will slowly expand northward into more of TX and LA. In doing so,
this should begin to limit rain chances to areas mainly along and
north of I-20. Not surprisingly, temperatures will begin to nudge
higher throughout next week with upper 80s to lower 90s area wide.
This may result in some areas approaching heat advisory thresholds
by mid to late week given the higher humidity levels expected with
persistent southerly flow and the very moist soil conditions after
such a wet month of May.

Medium-range progs do continue to suggest the arrival of a late
week cold front on Friday, but some discrepancies still exist as
the upper-level ridge will continue to be a factor in potentially
slowing and/or preventing the front from fully advancing through
the region. At a minimum, the cold front is expected to provide at
least a slight increase in rain chances by late next week heading
into next weekend.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, under fair skies the opportunity for
fog has never been better. Light and variable wind and a brief
window for LIFR/IFR 12-15Z improving back to MVFR/VFR after 15Z.
Winds will be W/SW and convection keeping along and south of I-20.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  89  75 /  20  10  30  10
MLU  89  69  89  72 /  20  30  30  10
DEQ  87  66  87  70 /  10  10  30  20
TXK  89  70  90  73 /  10  10  30  20
ELD  88  66  89  70 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  88  71  89  74 /  40  10  30  20
GGG  89  70  89  74 /  30  10  30  10
LFK  90  71  88  73 /  40  30  40   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24