992
FXUS64 KSJT 100008 CCA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
705 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

As of 2PM, we are already seeing an area of agitated cumulus across
the Concho Valley and the NW Hill Country with a few weak attempts
at convective initiation. This is a bit earlier and further
south/east than hi-resolution guidance was indicating but with a
weak area of deep moisture convergence in this area based on latest
mesoanalysis and temperatures in the mid 90s approaching the ConvT
in the area, these attempts make sense. With only modest instability
across the area and weak shear in the lowest 6 km, this activity
will likely be very pulsey in nature and will likely not pose much
of a severe threat. These storms could produce some heavy downpours
(thanks to areal PWat values in the 1-1.5 inch range) and be slow
moving with weak steering flow. Some isolated instances of hail with
these storms will be possible. The main area of storm development is
expected to occur west of our CWA, closer to the surface low in
eastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin later this afternoon and
evening. Again, with weak shear, these storms are expected to grow
upscale into a complex of storms and move east/southeast into our
area overnight. There has been a noted lack of run-to-run
consistency in hi-res guidance as to how well this complex remains
organized as it moves east. Because of this, have capped PoPs in the
chance category for the overnight hours. A cold front will make
progress through the area tonight which will help to knock low
temperatures down a few degrees from where they have been the past
few days into the upper 60s to low 70s. Scattered showers and storms
will continue through tomorrow with a largely uncapped atmosphere
and weak flow aloft. There may be a slight increase in upper level
support with increased northwest mid-level flow on the backside of
the upper low in eastern New Mexico by tomorrow afternoon which
could enhance development. Have broad-brushed PoPs for tomorrow
based on uncertainty in location and coverage. It will likely not
be raining everywhere the entire day but further refinements will
need to be made with the next forecast package. With the chances
for rain and cloud cover expected, temperatures will be much
cooler in the 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Northwest flow will continue across West Central Texas through
Tuesday and into early Wednesday, with CAMs like the NAMNest
showing several clusters of storms through Tuesday and into
Tuesday night. Will continue to show some chance of showers and
storms into early Wednesday.

Models continue to show the upper level ridge axis building east
into Oklahoma ans cutting off the northwest flow across West
Central Texas. Thickness values will rise and temperatures will
climb so that highs will start to climb above normal readings by
Thursday and will continue through the weekend. Highs in the mid
90s in the higher RH across the Heartland, to a few degrees above
the 100 degree mark across the Concho Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers and thunderstorms developed in the afternoon across
the Concho Valley southeast into Mason County. Subsequent outflow
boundary has moved west of the Concho Valley, where a multicell
cluster of storms has developed in the eastern Permian Basin. As
a result of the earlier convection, the environment has been
stabilized in this part of our forecast area early this evening.
Other storms along southern portion of outflow boundary were
moving through Junction. Farther to the north, isolated to
scattered showers and storms were occurring near a weak cold
frontal boundary, sagging south into the northern Big Country.
Our area has a chance for showers and thunderstorms through Monday
and Monday night, with hi-res model indications for scattered
multicell clusters of showers/storms. However, confidence is low
in placement and timing with showers/storms, with considerable
inconsistency in the hi-res models. Carrying VCSH late tonight
into Monday morning, and will monitor subsequent model and radar
trends for inclusion of TSRA. The aforementioned weak cold front
will move farther south across our area overnight, with northeast
winds following its passage. Our northern counties (including the
KABI TAF site) should have low cloud development late tonight and
Monday morning, with MVFR ceilings. Otherwise, outside of
convective activity, expect VFR conditions to prevail at our
other TAF sites. Where the showers and storms occur, brief
reductions in visibility and ceiling will be possible in locally
heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  85  68  88 /  50  40  20  30
San Angelo  70  90  69  94 /  50  40  20  20
Junction    70  90  71  94 /  30  40  20  10
Brownwood   71  86  68  88 /  30  40  20  20
Sweetwater  70  85  68  89 /  60  40  20  30
Ozona       68  89  68  94 /  30  30  20  10
Brady       70  87  70  89 /  40  40  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19