850
FXUS64 KSJT 072309
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
609 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The center of upper level high pressure will slowly move east,
bringing the region into weak southwest flow aloft Saturday. West
Central Texas, however, will still be dominated by the upper high
pressure with warm and dry conditions. Highs in the upper 90s to
102 are expected with the warmest temperatures in the Big Country,
Concho Valley, and around Junction. Dew points will not be as
high, Saturday, with 60s falling into the 50s in the afternoon.
This will keep heat indices mainly in the 90s. Southerly winds
will be breezy at times, particularly in the Big Country, where
gusts of 30 mph possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The upper level ridge responsible for our recent hot and dry
pattern will begin to break down late Saturday into Sunday and
will shift east into the Southeastern CONUS. A weak frontal
boundary is expected to drop into the Red River region by early
Sunday. With ample daytime heating, this front isn`t expected to
make much in the way of progress through the day but will begin to
sag south into our area late Sunday afternoon and evening. With
an increase in upper level support as shortwave impulses in the
west to northwest flow aloft pass overhead, showers and storms are
expected to develop generally along and north of the frontal
boundary. The best rain chances currently look to be between 00Z
Monday and 06Z Tuesday for the Big Country. There will be plenty
of instability to work with Monday afternoon with MLCAPE values
over 1500 J/kg and effective shear in the 30-40 kt range. Chances
for showers and storms continue into Tuesday but with the frontal
boundary well to our north and east by then, a lack of low level
convergence makes nailing down location of development a little
more complicated. Have kept PoPs largely confined to the Big
Country and Heartland where upper level support will be better.
Temperatures will be "coolest" on Monday with highs ranging from
the mid 80s in the Big Country to the mid 90s along the I-10
corridor. Temperatures will be a touch higher for Tuesday but
still comparable.

Moving into midweek, another upper level ridge begins to build
into the Southern Rockies, with its western periphery extending
into West Texas. This will work to limit/cut off rain chances
through the end of the work week and start us back on a warming
trend. The end of next week will be a similar pattern to what
we`re currently seeing with highs in mid 90s for our eastern
counties thanks to mid 60+ dewpoints and 100-104 in our western
counties with mid 50s to low 60s dew points.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions through tomorrow evening. South to southeast winds
between 10 and 15 knots, with gusts to around 20 knots at times,
mainly during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     76  99  75  98 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  74 102  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    71 100  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood   72  96  71  94 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  76 101  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       71  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...20