Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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920 FXUS64 KSJT 091916 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 216 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 As of 2PM, we are already seeing an area of agitated cumulus across the Concho Valley and the NW Hill Country with a few weak attempts at convective initiation. This is a bit earlier and further south/east than hi-resolution guidance was indicating but with a weak area of deep moisture convergence in this area based on latest mesoanalysis and temperatures in the mid 90s approaching the ConvT in the area, these attempts make sense. With only modest instability across the area and weak shear in the lowest 6 km, this activity will likely be very pulsey in nature and will likely not pose much of a severe threat. These storms could produce some heavy downpours (thanks to areal PWat values in the 1-1.5 inch range) and be slow moving with weak steering flow. Some isolated instances of hail with these storms will be possible. The main area of storm development is expected to occur west of our CWA, closer to the surface low in eastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin later this afternoon and evening. Again, with weak shear, these storms are expected to grow upscale into a complex of storms and move east/southeast into our area overnight. There has been a noted lack of run-to-run consistency in hi-res guidance as to how well this complex remains organized as it moves east. Because of this, have capped PoPs in the chance category for the overnight hours. A cold front will make progress through the area tonight which will help to knock low temperatures down a few degrees from where they have been the past few days into the upper 60s to low 70s. Scattered showers and storms will continue through tomorrow with a largely uncapped atmosphere and weak flow aloft. There may be a slight increase in upper level support with increased northwest mid-level flow on the backside of the upper low in eastern New Mexico by tomorrow afternoon which could enhance development. Have broad-brushed PoPs for tomorrow based on uncertainty in location and coverage. It will likely not be raining everywhere the entire day but further refinements will need to be made with the next forecast package. With the chances for rain and cloud cover expected, temperatures will be much cooler in the 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Northwest flow will continue across West Central Texas through Tuesday and into early Wednesday, with CAMs like the NAMNest showing several clusters of storms through Tuesday and into Tuesday night. Will continue to show some chance of showers and storms into early Wednesday. Models continue to show the upper level ridge axis building east into Oklahoma ans cutting off the northwest flow across West Central Texas. Thickness values will rise and temperatures will climb so that highs will start to climb above normal readings by Thursday and will continue through the weekend. Highs in the mid 90s in the higher RH across the Heartland, to a few degrees above the 100 degree mark across the Concho Valley. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR conditions currently present across the area. Isolated storms may develop across our western counties late this afternoon but coverage is expected to remain low and uncertainty in the location of development precludes a prevailing group so have gone with VCTS groupings for KSJT and KSOA. The better chances for showers and storms will be overnight from a complex expected to develop over eastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin before moving east. Have included PROB30 groups for KSJT and KSOA based on latest hi-res guidance as confidence in how well this complex holds together has varied from run to run. This is also the reasoning for leaving VCTS/SH for the terminals further east. MVFR stratus is expected to drop south and impact the KABI terminal late overnight and through the morning hours tomorrow but progress of this cloud deck should stall before reaching KSJT and KBBD. Winds will shift to a more easterly direction this afternoon before shifting to a more northerly direction late overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 70 85 68 88 / 50 40 20 30 San Angelo 70 90 69 94 / 50 40 20 20 Junction 70 90 71 94 / 30 40 20 10 Brownwood 71 86 68 88 / 30 40 20 20 Sweetwater 70 85 68 89 / 60 40 20 30 Ozona 68 89 68 94 / 30 30 20 10 Brady 70 87 70 89 / 40 40 10 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...50