205
FXUS64 KSJT 090528
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1228 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

As upper level ridging continues to break down through the day
today, a shortwave troughing regime will begin to shift east out
of the southern Rockies and into the Plains. As we move into the
late afternoon and evening hours, upper level clouds are expected
to increase across the area with winds out of the south staying
elevated in velocity through much of the overnight period. This
will help overnight lows across the area stay in the low to mid
70s. Overnight tonight, a cold front is expected to drop south
into the Red River region just north of the area. Here it is
expected to stall out during the day on Sunday. A surface low out
in eastern New Mexico will keep our surface flow out of the
southeast, bolstering the already ample low level moisture we have
across much of the region. As the shortwave trough makes more
progress into the area by the afternoon, scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop, especially around the Permian Basin,
but realistically diurnal activity could pop up anywhere with the
greatest axis of instability draped across eastern portions of our
area. The bulk of the activity will likely be outside of the
short-term forecast after 00Z Monday but isolated development
around 21Z Sunday is certainly possible. The main hindrance to any
severe activity will be the lack of effective shear across the
area, forecasted around 20 kts during the afternoon. This would
support more multicellular storm modes but some isolated instances
of large hail and damaging winds can`t be ruled out. As such, SPC
has added all of West Central Texas into a Marginal for their Day
2 Convective Outlook. Temperatures for tomorrow will be
comparable to today with our western zones in the upper 90s to to
around 103 with mid 90s across our eastern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Upper level ridge will remain centered west of the area with a
little more northwest flow developing aloft for Sunday night into
Monday and then Tuesday. Hard to cap northwest flow and this is no
exception, with most model showing some level of convection
developing at times for the period. However, models do have their
differences in just where and and what time convection is most
likely. Will continue to just run chance POPs in the 30%-50% range
for much of the period between Sunday night and Tuesday and fine-
tune the chances as it gets pinned down a little more.

Cooler on Monday and Tuesday with additional cloud cover and
maybe some storms keeping temperatures down.

Center of the upper level ridge builds closer to the area for mid
week and then eventually the ridge axis builds eastward farther
into Texas and Oklahoma. This will bring dry conditions back to
the area and allow temperatures to climb once again. Highs back
into the upper 90s to around 100 to end the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Some stratus is expected to develop over the Texas Hill Country
towards daybreak, with some of this possibly reaching the KJCT
terminal during the early morning hours. Will maintain a TEMPO
MVFR group this forecast cycle and monitor trends overnight.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail across the terminals.
Convection may develop west of the area late this afternoon and
early evening, and possibly affecting the KSJT terminal towards
the end of the forecast period. However, confidence remains too
low to consider mentioning at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  87  69  89 /  40  50  30  30
San Angelo  71  90  70  96 /  40  50  30  20
Junction    72  93  71  97 /  20  40  20  10
Brownwood   71  87  69  89 /  20  30  20  20
Sweetwater  70  85  69  90 /  50  50  30  30
Ozona       71  90  69  94 /  30  40  30  10
Brady       71  87  70  90 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...24