316
FXUS63 KTOP 101701
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1201 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-River flooding continues in some locations south of I-70 today.

-A few surface boundaries move into the region this week, which
 will bring increasing chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday, but
 more so on Thursday.

-Temperatures warm quickly midweek and may approach heat advisory
 limits.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Early this morning, river flooding was ongoing for a few rivers in
the southern forecast area following heavy rainfall from about 24
hours ago. Flood products will be updated as needed as
conditions are monitored. Through the day, a surface ridge axis
stretching from the eastern portions of the Dakotas into western
KS will move east over the forecast area and into the heart of
the Midwest. Calm weather conditions will result with sunshine,
light winds and seasonable temperatures in the low 80s. Aloft,
an H5 trough axis will be moving over MT/WY and into the
northern High Plains. As that trough continues eastward, it will
usher a surface boundary toward the area on Tuesday. The better
forcing and higher instability will be northeast of the CWA,
but have kept mention of slight chance POPs Tuesday midday and
afternoon mainly in northern KS near the boundary with a few
CAMs showing a signal for isolated development.

Thicknesses and WAA increase midweek with stronger southerly flow,
commencing a noticeable climb in temperatures. Highs Wednesday
afternoon could warm into the mid 90s in north-central KS and low
90s further east. The hottest day of the week appears to be
Thursday when temperatures could reach the triple digits in
central and north-central sections of the state. Combined with
dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, the resultant
heat index values will flirt with advisory limits. In the
meantime, another surface boundary will be dropping southward as
the next mid-level trough axis traverses the US/Canadian
border. Instability and bulk shear values are expected to be
higher ahead of that front given the higher theta-e air mass
and stronger wind field. Thus, the chance for severe weather
will be higher, likely late Thursday into Thursday night. A few
models then show a lingering front in the area from that system,
which could allow for a few more storms to develop Friday.
However, confidence is not high on that happening.

Temperatures are expected to stay on the warm side of average late
in the week with upper level ridging ahead of an approaching mid-
level wave moving out of the desert southwest. Long range models
differ slightly on the evolution and timing of that wave as it moves
through the central CONUS, but POPs may need to be increased once
again during this timeframe, especially if models come into better
agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR TAFs will continue over the period at all sites as high
pressure passes over the area. Winds will remain light and
slowly veering towards the south by late in the TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Griesemer