Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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624 FXUS63 KTOP 102302 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 602 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - River flooding is coming to an end across areas south of I-70, still exercise caution in recently flooded areas. - Nice today but warming up quickly through the week. - Mostly dry conditions for most in northeastern Kansas over the next few days with chances for storms Thursday evening (20-30%) and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Another beautiful afternoon is underway across northeastern Kansas today as surface ridging overhead has given way to clear skies, light winds and low humidity. Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the low 80s area wide in response to the ample insolation, and will warm a few degrees further throughout the remainder of the afternoon. Overnight tonight, the surface and 850mb ridge axes shift east of the area and return winds to the south ushering in warmer and moisture rich air. A wave passing over the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon will try and push a weak frontal boundary through northeast KS, but confidence continues to decrease in many areas receiving any precipitation with this. Majority of lift and upper- level support is much further north in the Dakotas and Nebraska, and given the very modest low-level moisture availability, it might be difficult to produce much in terms of showers and storms along a boundary that continues to diffuse itself on its way into Kansas. Continued to reduce PoPs in north-central KS to replicate this thinking, still holding on to a 20% chance for a isolated shower or non-severe storm to develop. By Wednesday and Thursday, increasing mid-level heights and downsloping southwesterly low-level flow will quickly warm afternoon high temperatures into the mid to upper 90s. Some areas across central Kansas will flirt with triple digits both afternoons. Heat indicies will also need to be monitored Thursday as persistent moisture advection within southerly flow will push 70 degree dew points into the area. 100-105 degree heat indicies could be realized in isolated spots by peak heating Thursday. In addition to the heat, an upper-level wave passing to the northeast will push a frontal boundary across the area near peak heating Thursday afternoon with the threat for severe storm development along the front. Ample amounts of instability, shear ranging from 30-40 knots and steep ML lapse rates will be present in northeast Kansas ahead of the boundary. Guidance does show some capping that does decrease confidence in how widespread convection can become, but if convergence along the boundary can overcome this, a few to several strong/severe storms could develop Thursday afternoon and evening. Current guidance depicts the best convergence along the front and least amount of MLCIN further towards northeastern KS, northwest MO, and near the surface low in IA. This is where confidence is higher for severe weather threat Thursday evening. Beyond Thursday, temperatures will remain warm, topping out in the 90s into early next week. More chances for storms return Friday night into Saturday and again Saturday into Sunday with a cutoff shortwave trough moving out of the desert southwest, although confidence does not remain high with the coverage and exact timing of precipitation over this timerange. Continue to monitor the forecast over the coming days as an active weather pattern might be in store later in the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 601 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions prevail with FEW to SCT high clouds. No aviation hazards forecast. Winds veer to the SSW into the morning with minimal gusts into the afternoon. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Griesemer AVIATION...Drake