Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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978 FXUS63 KTOP 080824 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm chances continue later this afternoon and tonight with locally heavy rainfall possible. - Small precipitation chances next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery was showing a shortwave trough moving into western Missouri with a upstream perturbation moving into western Kansas. Another short wave trough was moving across Utah and Western Wyoming at 07Z. A complex of storms continues to move off to the east and southeast of the area with precipitation ending as of 0715Z. For today, a frontal boundary will gradually sag southward across the area and into southern Kansas by late afternoon. Depending upon where the front is later this afternoon, there remains a small probability (20-30%) for some storms to develop along the front in east central Kansas with surface heating and convergence. Temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday, especially across far northern Kansas where highs will be in the lower 80s, while areas south of I-70 warm into the mid to upper 80s. This evening storms are forecast to develop across eastern Colorado then move eastward into western Kansas where they will then track into central and south central Kansas along a moisture and instability gradient. Areas south of I-70 look to have the best chance (70-80%) of storms producing locally heavy rainfall. A few of the storms could also pose a wind and hail threat. Precipitation moves out of the far southeast Sunday morning with decreasing clouds as high pressure builds in from the north. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows drop into the 50s Sunday night across the area, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s again on Monday. Warm advection Wednesday on the back side of the surface high will see a thermal axis develop across western into north central Kansas where highs will warm back into the lower 90s. Temps warm into the mid 90s on Thursday as the thermal axis builds eastward into central and northeast Kansas. Precipitation chances for much of next week remain low (20% or less), however Tuesday may be the best chance, (30%), of the week as a mid level trough moves across the Plains. Another system approaches for the end of next week with the potential for showers developing. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Main concern will be TSRA at TOP and FOE with storms moving through the local area for the first hour or two of the forecast. Expect TSRA reducing vsbys to IFR briefly as they move through. At MHK expect mainly VFR conditions as TSRA has moved to the east. Winds will be variable with the convection then settle on a southeast direction at 10 kts or less. A boundary moves south after 12Z shifting the winds to the northeast by 15Z at the terminals. Some threat for additional TSRA after 03Z at MHK so included VCTS for now. Confidence is low for placement of convection at the end of the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...53 AVIATION...53