382
FXUS63 KTOP 070532
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1232 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms likely Friday night, with potential for large hail,
  damaging winds, and heavy rainfall.

- Stalled boundary provides ample rain chances through the next
  5 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

This morning`s thunderstorms have exited the region, and northerly
winds are reinforcing the cooler and drier air compared to
yesterday. A surface high pressure is currently analyzed in SW
Nebraska, and will slide to the SE into the forecast area through
the next 12 hours, and this will result in a wind shift. Southerly
winds will begin to advect moisture into the area overnight, and a
weak shortwave will act to strengthen the 850 hPa jet tomorrow
morning.

During the day, another shortwave will move to the east across
Nebraska. With better forcing, convection is likely to begin there
in central Nebraska around 4 pm. There is a slight chance for
convection to form across eastern Kansas at this time, which would
pose a risk for large hail and heavy rain. However, the chances for
convection in the afternoon is low. The FV3 model is the only one
which shows robust convection this early.

The storms in Nebraska are likely to move to the southeast, and will
approach the Kansas border by around 7 pm tomorrow night. These
storms could be severe. With high CAPE above the frontal inversion,
there is potential for hail and damaging winds with any storms that
form and move across the area. As the storms move across the region,
they should weaken due to lower instability. Highest severe weather
chances will be in the northern half of the area, but there is still
uncertainty about the MCS track this far out. The SPC Day 2 Outlook
has a Slight Risk for far northwestern portions of the area, with a
main threat of damaging winds.

Heavy rainfall will also be possible with thunderstorms. PWAT values
approaching 2" will be well above the 90th percentile for this time
of the year. There is a Slight Risk for heavy rainfall area wide.
One potential saving grace is that storm motions should be
relatively quick, limiting the flooding risk. A majority of the most
recent CAM guidance has the storms moving out of the CWA by around 2
am.

Newer guidance has been trending stronger for the wave Saturday
night, and the thinking is that will interact with the boundary and
spark additional storms. A Slight Risk of heavy rainfall is in
effect for Saturday night for areas south of I-70.

Sunday looks like the driest day in the forecast, with clearing
skies and highs around 80. Past this weekend, northwesterly flow
with multiple disturbances will prevail across the Central CONUS,
with multiple chances of rain and thunderstorms in the first half of
next week. Towards the middle of next week, we start to dry out and
warm up as a ridge slides eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected for much of the period outside of
any convection. Main concern will be timing of a line of storms
through the terminals after 02Z Saturday. Concensus of models
would suggest that after 03Z through the end of the period would
be most likely time period and have added vcts for now. WInds
become south 10-13kts after 17Z, then back to south southeast
after 00Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Montgomery
AVIATION...53