027
FXUS63 KTOP 060806
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
306 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers possible this morning, followed by cooler afternoon
  temps.

- A complex of strong to severe storms is progged to move across
  the state Friday evening - Saturday morning. The strongest
  storms may produce large hail, damaging winds, and locally
  heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Broad northwest flow stretches through the central CONUS via water
vapor imagery this morning.  The secondary cold front continues to
push into far eastern Kansas at the current hour. Isentropic ascent
noted by the mid level clouds will continue to increase in the 310-
320K levels, resulting in scattered showers developing across the
area near sunrise, traversing southeast through mid morning. Clouds
clear by the afternoon amid northerly winds increasing from 10 to 20
mph. Steady cooler air spreading south should limit highs some to
the lower 80s.

Focus quickly turns to a strong upper wave and sfc low that deepens
over eastern CO by Friday afternoon. Two areas for convection are
scattered severe storms over western KS along a dryline and an MCS
that develops over NE early evening. There is higher uncertainty for
convection in western KS to impact central KS while confidence is
moderate for the severe cluster of storms to move into north central
during the evening period. MUCAPE values are highest in north
central Kansas in upwards of 3000 J/KG while effective bulk shear
values in excess of 50 kts suggest updrafts capable of producing
large hail, in addition to damaging wind gusts. Track of the optimal
dynamic lift aloft coinciding with the southwesterly LLJ direct most
of the precipitation and severe potential north of Interstate 70
overnight into Saturday morning. Confidence in the cluster remaining
severe as it clips areas south of I-70 is low where instability
values drop well below 1000 J/KG by 12Z Saturday. Strong h85
moisture transport sends PWAT values in upwards of 2 inches during
this time so will need to monitor the flooding potential as well.

After the Friday evening system, Saturday should be a mostly sunny
afternoon with light winds and highs in the middle 80s. A
progressive secondary wave arrives Saturday evening, developing
additional storms along the h85 front that ensembles progged to be
in southern KS. Pops are still kept for areas south of I-70 with any
slight adjustments in the frontal placement. Severe weather
probabilities are currently low for now with the weak wind shear.

Quieter and cooler conditions return Sunday and Monday as a northern
stream upper trough shifts the ridge eastward, opening back up the
more active westerly flow pattern by Tuesday. A low pressure system
and frontal boundary is trending towards crossing the state on
Tuesday. Have introduced precip chances for this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR at terminals as the fropa shifts winds to the northwest
just below 10 kts. Mid level clouds increase behind the boundary
with consistency amongst guidance of scattered showers and
isolated TSRA developing in the 12Z-15Z time frame. Coverage is
high enough to mention in a Tempo group at KMHK, but opted to
wait and monitor at KTOP/KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto