396
FXUS65 KTWC 080924
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
224 AM MST Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will run a few degrees above normal
through the rest of the weekend then turning hotter by the middle
of the new week. A chance of thunderstorms in the afternoons for
the eastern mountains throughout the weekend. Rainfall should be
limited, with strong and erratic winds being the main threat along
with lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows the upper low along the
coast of Baja California. The low will continue to track eastward
to bring temperatures down a bit compared to the last two days of
hot and hot temperatures. Still, temperatures will still be
running a few degrees above normal. There is still some moisture
in the eastern counties to produce mainly high based and mainly
dry storms each afternoon. Better chances on Sunday due to the
influence of the weak low passing over the region. Plus, this
weekend will have some elevated fire weather concerns across the
region due to dry and elevated wind speeds.

Starting Monday, ensembles show another low pressure center
setting up off the coast of Baja California. Over the last several
model runs, the low has been trended westward which allows the
ridge axis to set up over the region towards the middle of the
week. A strong ridge with high heights point to hot to very hot
temperatures. There is at least 20% chance of experience 110
degrees or higher on Wednesday and Thursday for areas from Tucson
north along the I-10 corridor, lower desert elevations to Ajo,
and within Gila River Valley. Overall, much of the region`s
temperatures will run 7-10 degrees above normal and leading to
Major Heat Risk for those days. Another round of Excessive Heat
for Southeast Arizona is coming soon.

Besides temperatures, there will be a slight push of moisture due
to the position of the low pressure and the ridge over the region.
This will bring small chances for high based storms mainly in the
mountains in the eastern counties towards the end of the new week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 09/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds (locally BKN) at 10k-14k ft AGL and SCT-BKN cirrus
clouds AOA 20K ft AGL thru the forecast period. There will be a
slight chance of -SHRA/-TSRA mainly east of a KALK to KSAD line
aft 08/21Z till 09/04Z. SFC wind less than 10 kts and variable in
direction between thru 08/17Z and again aft 09/03Z. Aft 08/17Z,
SLY/SWLY SFC wind at 12-17 kts and gusts to 20-28 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Mid level moisture in place will bring a slight
chance of mainly dry thunderstorms east of Tucson through the
weekend. These storms will generally be dry and can produce gusty
and erratic winds along with lightning. High temperatures running
2-4 degrees above normal into early next week and then becoming
hotter towards the middle of the week. Expect min RH values of
4-9 percent in the lower elevations and 8-15 percent in the
mountains through the middle of next week, along with poor
overnight recoveries between 20-35 percent in most locations.
Outside of any thunderstorm outflows, 20-foot winds will generally
be 15 mph to 20 mph with gusts around 30mph for today and for some
locations on Sunday. Elevated fire weather concerns during the
afternoons and into the early evening for the rest of the
weekend. By Monday, 20-foot winds will follow typical diurnal
patterns into the middle of next week, with afternoon/early
evening gustiness due to strong surface heating.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

KJS

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson