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189
FXUS61 KAKQ 072352
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
752 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier conditions continue tonight and Saturday. A
weak cold front crosses Sunday, bringing a chance for isolated
to scattered showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key message:

- Mostly clear skies and pleasant conditions expected through
  tonight.

Cold front is south and east of the local area with partly
cloudy skies noted on satellite imagery with fair weather
cumulus clouds. Surface observations show much drier air moving
into the region from the NW with dew points are generally in the
50s inland and in the 60s across the SE. Afternoon highs top
out in the mid to upper 80s with readings near 90 degrees
possible across the SE quarter of the area. CAM guidance shows
the potential for isolated showers near and south of the VA/NC
border late this afternoon so have included a slight chance PoP
in these regions but confidence is low. Breezy W winds this
afternoon with gusts 15-25mph. Mostly clear tonight with light
winds and lows in the mid 50s inland to the low/mid 60s at the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry conditions continue Saturday.

- Another weak front pushes through the area Sunday, with widely
scattered showers and perhaps a few storms.

Upper low will continue to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada with a building ridge across Texas into the central Gulf
Coast region. Flow aloft becomes largely zonal on Saturday with weak
surface high pressure building in from the west. Dry weather and
warm temperatures will continue on Saturday with clouds increasing
from the west late it the day. Afternoon high temps range from the
low 80s over the Eastern Shore to the mid and upper 80s for southern
VA into NE NC. Lows overnight generally in the 60s.

The next cold front approaches the region on Sunday with increasing
clouds and a chance for showers and a few rumbles of thunder. Will
show slight chance to chance PoPs across the northern 2/3rds of the
area during the afternoon, spreading S and E into the evening and
overnight hours. QPF is not expected to be very substantial with
limited moisture ahead of the frontal passage. Highs Sunday in the
80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Slightly cooler on Monday with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s
and 60s. A slight chance for showers returns to the region Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Near to below normal temps expected Tuesday with warmer temps
returning mid to late week.

- Continued disagreement in model guidance leads to uncertainty in
next week`s forecast.

Cooler conditions expected on Tuesday with highs only in the 70s to
low 80s. Will maintain a slight chance PoP across the S with the 12z
GFS and ECMWF swapping solutions with respect to an upper wave and
surface reflection. The ECMWF now amplifies the system near/over the
area with precip across much of the area Tuesday while the GFS is
much less amplified and drier. Will continue with the blended
approach pending greater consensus among the global guidance. Will
show afternoon highs slowly rising through the 80s Wednesday and
Thursday with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Upper ridging
potentially builds into the region late this week with temperatures
rising into the 90s with mostly diurnally driven shower and storm
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 750 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail as of 00z and will continue the next 24
hours. Mainly clear aside from some dissipating AC around SBY
with a WNW wind of 5-10kt. The wind will be light and generally
WNW tonight, with the exception of ORF and ECG, which could have
a N wind increase to ~10kt behind a weak secondary cold front.
The wind will generally be W to WNW 8-12kt Saturday under a
sunny sky, with occasional gusts to 15-20kt at SBY, and
potentially a shift to NE mid-late aftn at ORF due to a sea-
breeze.

Dry and VFR Saturday night. Another cold front will bring a
slight chc of showers/tstms later Sunday. A slight chc of
showers/tstms lingers in to Monday, but overall VFR conditions
should prevail Sunday and Monday. Dry and VFR Tuesday and
Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect tonight for the Chesapeake
Bay, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound.

- Low rip current risk at all area beaches this weekend.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts a weak surface low off the New
England coast with a secondary area of low pressure N of the Great
Lakes. Winds this afternoon were generally variable ~5 kt. A
reinforcing cold front crosses the local waters this evening into
tonight with winds becoming N 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. While
this surge is expected to be brief (3-4 hours), CAMs have trended
higher for winds. Given the higher confidence and efficient mixing
of cooler air over warm waters, have opted for SCAs for the Ches
Bay, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound this evening into early
tonight. Winds become NW ~10 kt late tonight before becoming W 5-10
kt Sat as high pressure builds in from the W. Winds become SW 10-15
kt with a few gusts to 20 kt across the lower bay and coastal waters
Sat night into Sun. The GFS and NAM also show the potential for 15-
20 kt W winds Mon. However, both of these surges have low
confidence. As such, will continue to monitor for now.

Waves and seas were ~1 ft and 2-3 ft respectively this afternoon.
Waves build to 2-3 ft this evening into early tonight before
subsiding to 1-2 ft by Sat morning. Seas may build to 3-4 ft across
the S coastal waters tonight, but given the short duration of the
surge, 4-5 ft seas are not expected. Additionally, there is a low
rip current risk this weekend given 2 ft nearshore seas.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ631-632-
     634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...RMM