-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
968
FXUS63 KJKL 090855
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
455 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Changed Discussion --
- A cold front brings rain chances to eastern Kentucky starting
  early this morning and running through the day. This will end
  from north to south during the afternoon as the front settles
  south of the state.

- Cooler air will be reinforced across the region early this
  week, before temperatures modify back to above normal by the end
  of the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2024

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure now off to the east of
Kentucky while an area of low pressure is passing off to the
northeast. A cold front from this is starting to settle south into
Kentucky from the north. At the same time, ahead of this
boundary, a healthy cluster of storms is moving into central
Tennessee with its northern fringe riding east through south
central Kentucky. Thicker clouds have now spread into eastern
Kentucky ahead of those southern storms. These clouds kept
temperatures more uniform across the area early this morning after
we saw a bit more terrain based drop off during the evening.
Specifically, readings are generally from the mid 60s to lower
70s. Meanwhile, amid mostly light winds, dewpoints are in the
upper 50s to lower and mid 60s. The clouds also have kept most of
any fog at bay through the night.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict a large 5h low north-northeast of Kentucky
dropping through the Ohio Valley and thereby tightening up the
northwest mid level flow over the region. Within this flow, an
impulse runs through the Tennessee Valley today while a more
substantial one pushes south from the Ohio Valley. This latter one
brings height falls and keeps more robust packets of energy
moving through the JKL CWA into Monday before the 5h trough axis
crosses this part of the state by that evening. The model spread
continues to be small enough that the NBM was used as the starting
point for the short term grids along with the incorporation of
the CAMs` details for PoPs today.

Sensible weather features a decent chance for showers and a few
thunderstorms through the area today, though the highest
probabilities for both will be found for the southern half of
eastern Kentucky. The southward movement of the cold front will
bring an end to the precipitation threat from north to south
through the JKL CWA during the afternoon. Only a small sliver of
southeast Kentucky will see a chance for showers after 00Z Monday.
Drier air, post frontal, will mean more in the way of ridge to
valley temperature differences tonight along with a potential for
fog in the valleys and places that manage to see the better rain
today. For Monday, we will stay dry even though 5h heights will be
falling as the northeast trough bottoms out nearby with ample
energy flowing above. This will make for rather cloudy skies and
cooler than normal afternoon temperatures to start the work week.

The main changes to the NBM starting point consisted of adjusting
the NBM PoPs to include CAMs details for the shower and storm
chances through the day. The temperatures from the NBM were
tweaked tonight in order to represent better terrain detail in a
drying wx regime.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 444 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2024

The extended period will start off with a large trough of low
pressure aloft spinning in place over the northeastern CONUS. A
north to south elongated narrow ridge of high pressure will be in
place from south central Canada southward into the central and
southern Plains to start things off. Another trough of low pressure
is forecast to be moving across western Canada into central Canada,
with weak ridging coming onshore in the Pacific Northwest at the
same time. Another system is expected to settle over Florida, and
more or less remain in place there through next weekend. As the
period progresses, the Plains ridging is forecast to drift eastward
and slowly move through the Great Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee
Valley regions, bringing dry and warm weather to those areas. In
fact, most of the extended should be dry, with a few showers and
storms possible along the Virginia border and our far northern
counties Friday and Saturday, as troughs of low pressure move by to
our south and north. Our next decent chance of rail will likely not
arrive until next Sunday, when another area of low pressure moving
by to our south pushes just far enough northward to allow isolated
to scattered showers and storms to spread into our forecast area
from the south.

After starting off the period with near normal temperatures in the
upper 70s on Tuesday, a major warm up is in store for the remainder
of the period. With persistent high pressure in place over the
region, we will see a steady northward flux of warm and muggy air
off the Gulf of Mexico into the area, which will bring much warmer
than normal temperatures into the picture. Daily highs from
Wednesday through Sunday look to max out in the mid 80s to lower
90s, as winds shift mainly to the south and southwest, and we
experience ample sunshine under mostly clear skies along with strong
subsidence warming.

With the weather expected to be mostly calm in the extended, there
are currently no concerns from any shower or storm activity we
experience. With much warmer than normal temperatures expected, heat
index values could rise to the point of creating some minor
discomfort for anyone engaging in strenuous outdoor activities this
coming week, but nothing more.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2024

Extensive cloudiness will continue into the morning, with more
extensive and lower cigs working in with shower and possibly
thunderstorm activity toward morning, mainly not until after
sunrise. KLOZ and KSME stand the best chance of being impacted by
this activity, with lesser chances at the other TAF sites through
the day. As a result VFR conditions will prevail through at least
12Z, with the best chances for MVFR cigs/conditions occurring
between 14 and 20Z, when there is also the slight chance for a
thunderstorm. Light and variable winds are expected through the
morning before becoming west and then northwest at generally
10 kts or less this afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF