-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
150
FXUS63 KJKL 081648 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1248 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and noticeably less humid air will remain in place this
  morning, though there will be a small chance for showers during
  the afternoon and into the evening.

- The next passing cold front will bring increasing rain chances
  to eastern Kentucky later tonight into Sunday.

- Cooler air will be reinforced across the region early next
  week, before temperatures modify back to above normal by the end
  of the period.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1248 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2024

Hourly grid were updated based on recent observations and trends.
Pops through early evening as the weakening convection moves east
from central to eastern KY were lowered a bit to mainly just
slight chance or sprinkles as few upstream observations had
measurable precipitation. Most recent CAMS have generally weak
activity as this moves east across the area and the latest HRRR
just has mostly just a trace of QPF as this moves into eastern
KY.

UPDATE Issued at 735 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2024

No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2024

08Z sfc analysis shows relatively high pressure holding in place
over eastern Kentucky as low pressure is approaching from the
northwest. This has been able to keep the skies mostly clear
overnight allowing for another night of good radiational cooling.
As a result, temperatures currently vary from the low 50s in the
deeper valleys to around 60 on the ridges - and in more open
areas. Meanwhile, amid light winds, dewpoints are fairly dry in
the upper 40s to lower 50s, most places. Probably due to the
drier air in place, the river valley fog has been more subdued
than last night but in evidence from the fog channel satellite
imagery.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict fairly fast, northwest, mid level flow
running through Kentucky on account of a stretched out low height
gyre to the north of the state and a large ridge to the south
along the Gulf Coast. Within this flow, several impulses will
pass through the area during the short term portion of the
forecast. The first of these moves through early this afternoon
with a slight drop in 5h heights as it passes. The next one slips
by to the south later tonight while the northern gyre digs south
into the Ohio Valley. The descent of this latter feature
continues into Sunday evening with more energy pushing into this
part of Kentucky. The model spread is still small enough that the
NBM was used as the starting point for the short term grids along
with the incorporation of the CAMs` details for PoPs from this
afternoon through Sunday evening.

Sensible weather features high pressure retreating to the east
allowing for some moisture return and showers to arise well out
ahead of an area of low pressure stretching east from the Central
Plains. A developing front pushes into this part of the state from
the west later today and will help to generate a few showers
initially but, likely after a lull, we will see lower cloud decks
into Sunday along with a better potential for convection in the
form of thunderstorms - mainly for the just the southern 2/3rds
of the JKL CWA. This shower and thunderstorm threat continues
through the afternoon Sunday as that front settles through the
Cumberland Valley, before diminishing west to east Sunday
evening. The building cloud and convection will limit terrain
differences and valley fog potential tonight as well as cap high
temperatures both today and Sunday to slightly below normal.

The main changes to the NBM starting point again consisted of
adjusting the NBM PoPs to include CAMs details for the shower
chances starting this afternoon and running through the day
Sunday. The temperatures from the NBM were tweaked early this
morning and again, to a more limited extent, tonight in order to
represent better terrain detail.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 516 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2024

The 08/00z suite continues to trend drier as the various model
solutions seem to be coalescing on the progressive scenario which
favors an upper level trough passing over eastern Kentucky early
next week in the wake of Sunday`s cold frontal passage. Any
leftover frontal showers will have departed or will quickly depart
by around 00z Monday as northwesterly flow ushers in drier and
cooler air. The trough axis doesn`t pass over eastern Kentucky
until Monday afternoon. Though better forcing will remain to our
north, there could still be some isolated shower activity,
primarily south of I-64 and east of I-75, warranting a 10 to 20
PoP. Ridging aloft and at the surface then builds in Monday night
and persists through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the surface high
pressure ridge will begin to weaken as the ridge flattens aloft
ahead of another upper level trough. That trough skirts the
northern CONUS later in the week, keeping the better forcing and
height falls to our north, though an associated weak cold front
likely sags into the Ohio Valley around the end of the forecast
period. Rain chances through the remaining portions of the
forecast period are diurnally-driven and low, generally 20 percent
or less.

Outside of any isolated shower activity, sensible weather should
feature mostly sunny skies by day and mostly clear skies at night
(aside from the typical nocturnal valley fog). Temperatures start
the period on the cooler side of normal with highs in the lower to
middle 70s on Monday before climbing in the mid 80s to near 90 by
Friday. Meanwhile, the coldest nighttime lows of the period, mid
40s to lower 50s, are on tap for Monday night before daily minimum
temperatures moderate into the upper 50s to mid 60s by the end of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2024

River valley fog will clear out shortly, then VFR conditions
prevail through the period as sfc high pressure starts to ease off
to the east. Look for increasing upper and mid-level clouds into
the evening and the upcoming night with just a small chance of a
light shower this afternoon or evening. Light and variable winds
will hold through the period with some LLWS from the southwest at
up to 40 kts expected for a period tonight, at most sites.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GREIF